ARGENTINA’S POLITICAL ODYSSEY: Navigating the Rise of Milei

Guest Commentary by Banura Nandathilake

In the wake of Argentina’s 40^th anniversary of uninterrupted democracy, a disconcerting shift in the political landscape has unfolded with the ascent of Javier Milei. Once a right-wing populist, provocative television personality and rock singer with a mop of disheveled hair, Milei's meteoric rise has catapulted him from the realm of unrestrained outbursts against the perceived political elite to assuming the presidency. Garnering comparisons to Trump and embracing a libertarian ethos, Milei, with vows to extricate Argentina from what he deems decades of “decadence and decline,” now holds the reins of power. However, his ascendance is marked by an air of ambiguity towards democratic norms, as evidenced by his questioning of democratic efficacy citing Arrow's theorem, and unrestrained outbursts against a “political caste” he blamed for Argentina’s perennial economic woes. Argentina finds itself at a crossroads, navigating both a prolonged economic crisis and the potential implications of a leader whose rhetoric reflects an authoritarian strain.

The Unconventional Agenda

As Argentina stands at the precipice of a political transition, the election promises articulated by President Javier Milei, have ignited both intrigue and skepticism. Often labeled ‘El Loco’ by critics, Milei’s ambitious agenda encompasses radical economic, social, and institutional transformations. Foremost among his pledges is the abandonment of the national currency, the peso, in favor of the US dollar, a move he asserts will curb inflation by dismantling the central bank’s capacity to print more money. The flamboyant economist, known for his unorthodox campaign tactics, symbolically brandished a chainsaw to underscore his commitment to slashing expenditures, a visual metaphor for his intent to ‘dynamite’ the central bank and embrace dollarization.

Milei’s promise to privatize state-owned enterprises, including the energy giant YPF and public broadcasters, echoes the neoliberal playbook. This commitment, however, comes with a caveat, as he emphasizes the need to first ‘rebuild’ YPF before its privatization - an aspect that raises questions about the timeline and feasibility of such an endeavour. Concurrently, his vow to disband ministries deemed redundant has stirred controversy, with a categorical dismissal of the Culture Ministry, Environment Ministry, Ministry of Women and Gender Diversity, among others. In a stark departure from conventional governance, Milei has advocated for substantial cuts in welfare payments, a move that raises concerns in a nation where millions depend on government assistance and subsidies.

Socially, Milei's agenda takes a conservative turn, advocating for the relaxation of gun laws, a stance juxtaposed against his intention to reverse the legalization of abortion in Argentina. His call to permit the sale and purchase of human organs further underscores the ideological departure from prevailing norms. Milei’s critique of what he terms a “system of state indoctrination” extends to his promise to abolish sex education in schools, indicative of a broader challenge to established societal norms. Additionally, he has suggested a transformative shift in Argentina’s education system, proposing the replacement of free public education with a “voucher” system, while hinting at the potential termination of obligatory primary schooling.

At the core of Milei's promises lies an overarching commitment to austerity, embodied by a proposed five percent reduction in government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product. This pledge, in a nation grappling with a severe economic crisis marked by staggering inflation and widespread poverty, raises questions about its social impact and the potential for exacerbating existing hardships. As he navigates the complex terrain of translating campaign rhetoric into policy action, Argentina watches with a mixture of anticipation and trepidation, acutely aware that the promises made during this critical juncture may shape the nation's trajectory for years to come.

A Political Upheaval

As Argentina underwent a seismic political shift, Javier Milei’s resounding victory in the presidential election marked an unexpected turn of events. Pre-election polls, though indicating Milei's slight lead over Sergio Massa, failed to anticipate the substantial margin of his win—more than 11%, according to provisional results. Milei's inaugural speech echoed the populist fervor reminiscent of Donald Trump’s 2017 inauguration, with a commitment to ending what he termed an era of “Argentina has become a bloodbath.” With strong rhetoric, he vowed to combat drug traffickers and swiftly address the nation's pressing challenges. The victory, dedicated in his customary fashion to his deceased dog, Conan and three surviving dogs, positioned Milei as the outsider who successfully navigated the political spectrum between Peronism and the followers of former President Mauricio Macri.

The election on November 19, 2023 saw Milei securing 55.9% of the votes in a runoff against Sergio Massa, the finance minister, who garnered 44%. He wasted no time in outlining his vision for Argentina, promising deep spending cuts to reverse what he described as “decades of decadence” by the political elite. His radical reforms, including dollarization and austerity measures, gained national attention and positioned Argentina on a path potentially unfamiliar to a country of its size. Notably, Milei has already engaged with top U.S. officials in Washington and collaborated with IMF officers, signaling an intent to reshape Argentina's foreign policy and tackle its economic challenges head-on. The inauguration ceremony, attended by far-right associates such as Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro and Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, marked the official transfer of power. Milei, in his first speech as president, pledged sweeping changes and acknowledged the overwhelming public desire for irreversible change. The symbolic swearing-in, held before the nation's congress in Buenos Aires, showcased the president's distinctive style, complete with a personalized presidential sash and baton featuring engravings of his five dogs.

As Milei assumes the highest office, his presidency raises concerns about the potential impact on Argentina's democratic institutions. The blend of authoritarian ideas and unconventional styles, epitomized by the chainsaw-wielding campaign rallies, adds complexity to the nation's political discourse, urging democratic forces to navigate and redefine the social contract in the face of a president with a distinctive and unorthodox approach. While Milei assured that the proposed adjustments would primarily impact the state rather than the private sector, he acknowledged the short-term challenges, emphasizing the long-term vision of solid and sustainable growth. His commitment to ending “decades of decadence” left by overspending predecessors marked a central theme, emphasizing the urgency of addressing Argentina's economic woes.

Man of Eccentric Counter-Intuitiveness 

Javier Milei, a 53-year-old economist, has emerged as a central figure in Argentine politics, captivating the nation with his unorthodox ascent from television provocateur to the highest office. Described as the “anarcho-capitalist” and the “king of the jungle,” Milei's rise has defied conventional expectations, signaling a departure from established political norms.

The self-proclaimed ‘tantric sex instructor’ and former rock singer has championed an anti-establishment narrative, rallying against what he terms the “political caste.” His unapologetic tirades and flamboyant campaign appearances, where he has been seen wielding a chainsaw and donning outlandish outfits, have left an indelible mark on Argentina's political landscape. Milei’s eccentricities extend to his personal beliefs, where he has declared himself anti-abortion and dismissed global heating as a “socialist lie.” His triumph in the presidential primary elections, underscores his successful navigation between the Peronist and Macrista political spheres. Milei’s electoral win not only signals a shift in leadership but also reflects the widespread discontent with the political status quo.

The president’s counterintuitive vision is characterized by radical proposals that challenge traditional economic and social norms. Milei plans to adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina's national currency, a move unprecedented for a country of its size. Additionally, he advocates for the abolition of Argentina's central bank, a drastic measure aimed at addressing the nation's economic challenges, including 116% inflation and a cost-of-living crisis that has left a significant portion of the population in poverty. Milei’s ideological blend of libertarian conservatism and economic radicalism extends to his alliances with far-right figures such as Jair Bolsonaro and Viktor Orbán. His inauguration, attended by a cadre of international leaders, signifies a potential reorientation of Argentina's foreign policy, positioning the country as a key ally to Ukraine and distancing itself from authoritarian leaders like Nicolás Maduro and Daniel Ortega.

As Milei assumes the presidency, the contradictions within his persona and political platform raise questions about the future trajectory of Argentina. His authoritarian style, unconventional beliefs, and promises of sweeping changes challenge the democratic foundations of the nation. From dedicating his victory to his dogs, cloned from the cells of a beloved mastiff, to vowing to end “decades of decadence,” Milei’s presidency introduces a complex chapter in Argentina's political narrative. The challenges ahead, coupled with his unorthodox approach, will undoubtedly shape the nation's political discourse, prompting a critical examination of the delicate balance between populism and democratic governance.

The Electoral Paradox 

The electoral dynamics underscore a demand for change, with Milei positioned as the figure capable of channeling the frustrations of a populace eager to break free from the perceived failures of the past. His aggressive style and promises to dismantle the entrenched political establishment resonated with voters fed up with the country's economic decline under the center-left Peronist government. The overwhelming support for Milei signals a profound discontent with the status quo, as Argentina grapples with staggering inflation, soaring poverty rates, and a pervasive disillusionment with its political class.

Milei's victory speech, wherein he declared the end of a “model of decadence,” encapsulates the sentiment that propelled him to power - tapping into the frustration of Argentines who have witnessed their nation fall from prosperity to a ranking of 130^th in global economic standings. His promise of a Libertarian model and a return to global power struck a chord with those disillusioned by decades of economic mismanagement and a perceived stagnation in national progress.

The core of Milei's appeal lies in his ability to channel the collective anger against the ruling class, particularly among the younger demographic experiencing the brunt of the economic downturn. A significant portion of the population no longer identifies with the narratives presented by both Kirchnerism and Macrism, having witnessed little positive change under either government. Milei's capacity to tap into this discontent, especially among the youth, positions him as a figure capable of expressing the frustrations of a society seeking change.

The electoral success of Milei reflects a broader trend where voters, disillusioned with establishment parties, turn to unconventional candidates who promise radical solutions. Milei's Trump-like rallies and social media presence played a pivotal role in engaging a demographic dissatisfied with the economic crisis and job uncertainty. The perception that establishment parties failed to address these pressing issues fueled Milei’s popularity, positioning him as the least worst alternative in the eyes of many voters.

As Argentina grapples with economic challenges, Milei’s promise of “shock treatment” and the acknowledgment that short-term hardships are inevitable has resonated with those eager for change, regardless of its immediate consequences. The economic outlook for Argentina, marked by high inflation rates and looming fiscal deficits, sets the stage for Milei’s presidency as a critical juncture in the nation's history, where the electorate opted for a radical departure from the established political order.

Navigating the Slippery Slope 

The concerns surrounding President Javier Milei's leadership extend beyond his unorthodox promises and electoral triumph. As the political landscape in Argentina undergoes a seismic shift with Milei's ascent to power, a growing chorus of critics points to worrisome signs of authoritarian tendencies. Milei’s response to the attempted assassination of former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, treating it merely as a criminal act, and his praise for repressive acts during Argentina’s dark dictatorship era raise red flags. More alarming is his apparent readiness to curtail freedoms, evident in threats of legal action against journalists and political adversaries. This trend towards stifling dissent and criticism is a hallmark of authoritarian regimes. The tolerance or endorsement of violence, coupled with Milei’s defense of Argentina’s military dictatorship and proposals to loosen gun laws and legalize the sale of human organs, paints a concerning picture.

The appointment of Victoria Villarruel, who has defended military officers involved in human rights abuses during the dictatorship, adds another layer of controversy. Critics argue that Milei’s presidency poses a threat to democratic freedom and human rights, with concerns amplified by derogatory references to opponents and a disregard for political opponents’ legitimacy. While Milei’s radical plans to dismantle the state persist, including the elimination of various ministries, the absence of concrete checks and balances raises questions about the potential unchecked slide towards authoritarianism. As Argentina grapples with economic challenges and widespread disillusionment with established parties, the lack of viable alternatives may inadvertently provide tacit support to Milei's unconventional governance, with implications for the nation's democratic institutions.

Navigating Pragmatism

As Javier Milei assumes the presidency in Argentina, a complex tapestry of expectations, contradictions, and pragmatic shifts unfolds. While Milei’s campaign brimmed with anti-establishment fervor, his actual governance navigates a more nuanced landscape. Economists emphasize the practical constraints imposed by the limited representation of Milei's party in Congress, highlighting the necessity for negotiations with the very politicians he once disparaged.

The president’s adeptness at political realignment became apparent post-election, as he forged alliances with figures like Patricia Bullrich and Mauricio Macri, thanking them in his victory speech. However, concerns linger about the potential implications of his leadership for Argentine society, particularly with controversial appointments like Victoria Villarruel, known for defending officers involved in human rights abuses during the military dictatorship. Critics worry that Milei’s victory may compromise constitutional freedoms, yet the question arises: which version of Milei will govern? Will it be the chainsaw-wielding, anti-establishment crusader or the more moderate leader who emerged in the weeks following his win?

Pragmatism, it seems, is dawning as the president faces the monumental task of steering Argentina through economic challenges, political complexities, and the need for broader support in Congress. Despite earlier pledges to purge corruption and eliminate the Central Bank, recent developments indicate a shift toward moderation. Milei, once a vocal critic of global socialism, now engages in diplomatic overtures, sending a climate negotiator to the COP28 conference and backtracking on plans to scrap the health ministry.

His moderation, seen by some as a pragmatic response to political realities, includes appointing experienced politicians like Patricia Bullrich to key positions. While hints of moderation and backtracking on extreme proposals raise questions about consistency, the core narrative remains one of adaptability to the demands of governance. The preservation of democratic principles amid these shifts is underscored by Milei’s commitment during his inaugural address not to “persecute anyone or settle old vendettas.” The balancing act between campaign rhetoric and pragmatic governance, evident in Milei’s alliances and policy adjustments, sheds light on the intricate dynamics of leading a nation.

The analysis of Milei's evolving approach becomes crucial in understanding the trajectory of the nation. The chainsaw may be set aside, and the pledge to replace the peso with the dollar deferred, yet the essence of Milei’s presidency emerges as a study in adaptation, prompting a broader reflection on the resilience of democratic principles within the Argentine political landscape.

Javier Milei's Economic Revolution

In the aftermath of Javier Milei’s swift ascent to the presidency, the economic landscape of Argentina underwent a radical transformation. Within 48 hours of taking office, Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced a series of measures aimed at cutting public spending, devaluing the peso, and implementing various reforms. This ambitious agenda, an attempt to steer the country's economy toward surplus amidst a severe crisis, garnered international attention and earned praise from institutions like the IMF. However, as Milei moved to dismantle what he termed “the caste” – a network of political, business, and media elites – resistance emerged from various quarters.

An omnibus bill sent to Congress outlined Milei’s intent to rule by decree, reshape Argentina's electoral system, and impose stringent penalties for protest-related disruptions. The ensuing weeks witnessed a cacophony of dissent from different sectors – lawyers, doctors, artists, fishermen, and more – each expressing discontent over specific policy changes affecting their domains. Perhaps most vehement was the opposition from trade unions, central to Milei's target for systemic overhaul. His proposed labor reforms, which included making union membership opt-in and not automatic, triggered nationwide protests and a swift response from major unions.

While initially welcomed by financial markets, doubts arose concerning the political viability of Milei's transformative agenda. Challenges include the need for congressional approval on key fiscal measures, a shrinking economy, and rising inflation. The 2% monthly devaluation of the peso, aimed at boosting foreign reserves, faces skepticism, and there are concerns about the feasibility of tax hikes without legislative backing. Analysts are questioning whether the proposed changes will bring the anticipated economic revival or exacerbate existing challenges.

Beyond the Horizon

The nation finds itself at a critical juncture where the promises of radical reform meet the complexities of political reality. As ramifications of its decision to elect Javier Milei, a figure who personifies political unpredictability, the sustainability of Milei's vision and the extent of its impact on Argentina's deeply entrenched economic structures remain subjects of intense scrutiny and debate. From his flamboyant entrance into politics, marked by a whirlwind campaign that seized attention both nationally and globally, to his unexpected ascent to the presidency, Milei embodies a departure from conventional political norms. The nuances of his leadership style, from fiery rhetoric to signs of moderation post-election, underscore the complex landscape of Argentine politics.

While Milei’s victory raises concerns about authoritarian inclinations and potential challenges to democratic institutions, the enduring strength of Argentina's democracy persists. The very system that allowed a political outsider to ascend to power also carries within it the capacity for resilience and adaptation. The global community, too, has a stake in this unfolding narrative, as the fate of democracy in Argentina reverberates beyond its borders. Supporting Argentina’s democratic journey is not merely a national obligation; it is a shared responsibility that transcends regional boundaries, reflecting a broader imperative to safeguard democratic principles on a global scale.

CONVERTING TRADE INTO POWER – The European Single Market at 30

Reflections on Europe Day 2023

by George I. H. Cooke

 

The impact of trade on countries that engage in it heavily internationally, and the overall effect it is having on international relations as a whole, continues to baffle. European historian, Norman Davis, points out that “Western Europe’s greatest success story lay in the realm of economic performance. The speed and the scale of economic resurgence after 1948 was unprecedented in European history, and unmatched in any part of the world except Japan. It was so unexpected and spectacular that historians cannot easily agree on its causes. It is far more easily described than explained.”

Herein lies the crucial argument for trade and its intensification, which the European Union, as the foremost model of integration, has been able to achieve. As the Union marks three decades since the establishment of the Single Market, it is prudent to reflect upon that which has been achieved individually by countries, and collectively by the region.

Geared towards facilitating the free flow of goods, services, people and capital, the depth of integration was first envisioned in 1957 through the Treaty of Rome. Considered to be well ahead of its time, the Treaty proposed the reduction of customs duties, establishment of a customs union, creation of a common market, as well as common transport and agricultural policies, and even envisaged the setting up of the European Commission, which is one of the most unique institutions in multilateral bodies.

It was the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on 7 February 1992, that led to the establishment of the Single Market on 1 January 1993 bringing together 12 EU countries, notably, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom. With the expansion of the Union, the Single Market now comprises of the 27 EU Member States and also includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, while Switzerland has a degree of involvement as well.

The European Commission highlights that the Single Market has been able to make three distinct shifts - ‘accelerating the transition to a greener and more digital economy; guaranteeing high safety and leading global technological standards; and responding to recent crises with unprecedented speed and determination” – but from an analytical point of view, it has made the European Union one of the strongest trading blocs, and boosted its currency globally. This translates to power on the world stage, that many other regions which have attempted integrating can only aspire to, and are yet to realise.

While the deepened integration might be questioned against the backdrop of the exit of the United Kingdom, it needs to be examined for the progress and impact made over the last three decades. Greece, is probably the EU member that has faced the most trying of financial times in recent years, hence the Greek Foreign Ministry’s assertation that “the seamless operation of the Single Market is a precondition for a strong economy that will benefit all Member States, citizens and businesses and that will meet the conditions of global competition,” is testimony to its resolute commitment to the Single Market. In contrast, Germany, seen as the foremost and strongest economy in the Union, has benefited immensely from the Market. The Bertelsmann Foundation notes that “Germany benefited most in absolute terms from the single market, earning an extra 86 billion euros ($96 billion) a year because of it.”

At first glance it appears that all countries are benefitting from the Single Market, but it is important to note that the advantages accrued vary from one member state to another, and is largely dependent on their size, economy and strength. There is relative gain with Germany for example gaining tremendously, and Greece gaining relatively less, but gaining nonetheless.

Arguments on the contrary claim that the Single Market remains an illusion, which is yet an ‘ongoing project’ despite its many decades of implementation. Fredrik Erixon and Rositsa Georgieva of The Five Freedoms Project, claim that “While the nature and profile of the Single Market, and its regulations, have changed over the years, they often have focused on the wrong issues, or on factors that would not change the nature of markets as such.” This observation relates specifically to the Services sector, with their further claim that “The piecemeal approach to reform, followed until now, has created a complex web of regulations, administrative rules, national discretion, and partial freedoms. Fractional and incomplete liberalization have reduced the potential gains.”

Similarly, highlighting the legal obstacles to implementation, Copenhagen Economics, points out that “the functioning of the Single Market is a shared responsibility between the EU and the Member States. Differences in interpretation and application of EU law are inevitable. Despite years of hard work and substantial real progress, we appear to be some distance from having a well-functioning Single Market, free from unjustified or inappropriate obstacles to free movement.”

Although three decades might not have yielded a completely consolidated system it does however indicate much progress that is yet to be achieved by other regional groupings. The EU Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton argues that the Single Market is “much more than just a legal framework – or indeed a market. We need to continuously preserve, improve and re-invent this formidable asset.” Breton calls for three crucial measures to ensure that progress. He notes that “first, by ensuring that the rules we have agreed collectively are also applied collectively. Second, by putting SMEs at the centre of Europe’s competitiveness. Third, by ensuring that people and businesses have access to the goods and services they need, when they need them.”

While Breton’s assertion contributes to the concept of the Single Market being an ‘ongoing project’ it indicates the need for collective action for any progress across the grouping. This collective action might not always be forthcoming owing to domestic developments as seen with Brexit, and its impact on the region in particular, and regionalism in general. While Brexit delayed deeper integration, it also raised the question over the amount of integration. However, the United Kingdom had first raised concerns about the European model two years after joining in the mid-1970s. Therefore, the example of the Brexit needs to be examined in different light. Of relevance however, is continuous call for collective action. If Member States pull in different directions, or differ largely over policy and its implementation, the model is on rocky ground.

Yet the acceleration of economic development across the region, the enhancement of trade, and the removal of barriers, has led to the Single Market remaining a firm foundation upon which countries are able to build solid cooperative mechanisms. The Single Market also causes a return to the basic understanding that those who trade are less likely to engage in conflict.

A decade ago, the Stanford Graduate School of Business focused on the research of Matthew O. Jackson and Stephen Nei, who suggested that “military alliances alone aren’t enough to stop nations from attacking one another, and also that the addition of multilateral economic trade creates a more stable, peaceful world.” In their paper on Networks of Military Alliances, War and International Trade, Jackson and Nei observed that “once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify…trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks.”

Member States of the European Union embarked on an ambitious programme of integration after the Second World War with trade remaining at the centre, but these members did not sacrifice defence either, and many are Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Thus, military alliances have not been completely forgotten or sidelined, but have been nurtured too, and especially so in the last three decades. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, NATO evolved, and this evolution is attributed to Member States taking concrete action to ensure their preparedness if and when required.

While Europe has been able to avoid war among its constituent, yet sovereign entities, it is today grappling with war on its border as Ukraine and Russia continue to engage violently. However, NATO not activating a no-fly zone over Ukraine despite demands for the same from Ukraine, has probably been the saving factor that has ensured that war has not spilt over into Europe, and in fact the entire world.

The collective military might, coupled with the trade prowess, has given the European Union a higher degree of power. Three decades after the Single Market came into operation it is relevant to question whether trade ensured the inclusion of power into the equation, especially in light of the strength of the currency of the EU, and its financial markets. A currency of several European member states used by approximately 340 million people daily, is today the second most widely used currency globally, with 60 partner countries or territories also using the currency in some form.

The 69^th plenary meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs (COSAC) is due to convene in Sweden next week. A background note for the session on the Single Market has been circulated prior to the meeting. It claims that “Over the last three decades, the single market has promoted healthy competition and created strong economies and industries across the continent. The removal of barriers for goods, services, capital and people has given us both better companies and more thriving countries, and has provided consumers with higher quality products at better prices. The single market also makes it easier to travel, study, work, live and retire in other member states…. The single market also contributes to the Union’s unique peace project as it has generated increased trade, closer contacts and greater mobility within the Union.”

Trade transposed a region that fought two world wars in the short span of two decades, and has managed to remain relatively peaceful and devoid of conflict for over seven decades. It is granted that challenges remain deeply entrenched, and much doubt is raised over collective action, but it is also true that the European model of integration remains unique and in a league of its own, well ahead of the rest. Davies’ claim remains accurate as the progress “is far more easily described than explained.”

 

 

ENHANCING TOURISM WITH A STRATEGIZED FOREIGN POLICY

by George I. H. Cooke

Sri Lanka has remained the cynosure of the world for centuries. From being referred to, written about, conquered and even attacked, the island in the Indian Ocean is well entrenched in the global community. The attraction of the island has been its geographic location, scenic beauty, varied terrain, natural resources and diverse cultural attributes. While the lure of island has resulted in a chequered history, the use of such potential for the future is what remains crucial. The state and its key policy formulators are thus responsible, through an effective and strategized foreign policy, to ensure that all attributes of a country are used to its credit.

Given the inquiring nature of humans, the desire to discover and engage in adventure remains an insatiable appetite. While the tourism industry has been built on trying to satisfying this thirst, with people seeking new lands, keen to discover new cultures and explore diverse traditions and cuisines, the sector as a whole is vital to boosting national success and achieving progress.

The recent crises that Sri Lanka faced and the efforts made by the people to address grievances resulted in numerous changes which strengthened the democratic process in Sri Lanka, and ensured that the country remained even more relevant on the world stage. As news about Sri Lanka flashed across media platforms in capitals around the world, an inquiring mind would be intrigued to include a country that was upholding democracy, on a to-do list for future holidays, while some might have been apprehensive to make the journey. Irrespective of the nature of comprehension, and the context in which the island nation is featured internationally, Sri Lanka is in the news, and has remained so for millennia.

It is thus image that remains at the heart of information dissemination. While individuals strive hard to portray themselves in positive light and rectify errors or misgivings that others might have, we find that countries, their leaders and stakeholders too, seek the construction of a positive image internationally. Such positivity boosts tourism, nurtures trade, and attracts much needed investment. The creation and projection of a positive image is then pivotal for a country’s overall success. It is therefore the state, as the sovereign entity, that plays a catalytic role in ensuring that the image being communicated is conveyed in an appropriate manner, so as to captivate audiences, stimulate interest and create a conducive environment.

In Sri Lanka, the tourism sector was deeply affected by the Easter Sunday bombings in 2019, and the pandemic that struck in 2020. The latter’s impact was severe around the world as people focused primarily on health and safeguarding it, before venturing on holidays. However, within a brief span of time tourists started travelling, and braved conditions to ensure some semblance of normalcy returned to their lives. This was good news for a sector that was lagging behind and had made drastic changes to its cadre and capacity.

The tourism sector in Sri Lanka, as a key foreign exchange earner, provides employment to thousands directly and indirectly. As a sector which is highly lucrative and possesses immense potential, the island nation is not limited in the resources it has to offer. Although some travel destinations are considered unique for a particular aspect or attribute, Sri Lanka goes beyond in offering diversity across the island. From beaches to mountains, dry zones to forests, and ancient monuments to museums, the island is vibrant, colourful and an evolving construct that brings together a multiplicity of language, religion and culture.  However, in spite of the diversity, the infrastructure that has increased capacity and connectivity, and the passion of personnel, the sector is yet to reach its pinnacle in terms of returns. Where does the problem lie and what can be done about it?

The tourism sector, like all areas of engagement in Sri Lanka, needs a complete overhaul, and should be aligned with that which is to be achieved through a national strategy. The lack of such a national strategy has resulted in ad hoc action, and sporadic bouts of energy, all of which fails to deliver the full potential of the sphere. While changing administrations have changed personnel in decision making positions and hence changed policy, a national policy that is arrived at through consensus of all stakeholders is yet to materialize. Similarly, understanding the synergy of tourism and other key sectors is one that is yet to be realized in Sri Lanka.

In Singapore, the Tourism Board is under the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Korea amalgamates Culture and Sports with Tourism in one ministry. Nepal brings together Culture and Civil Aviation with Tourism, while China couples Culture and Tourism in one entity. In Europe, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action formulates tourism policy, which is the same in the Netherlands. In Portugal, the Ministry of Economy guides tourism policy, and Spain incorporates Trade, Trade and Tourism into one ministry. In West Asia, it is found that similar practices have been adopted. In Dubai, the Ministry of Economy and Tourism develop the two sectors, while in Oman, Tourism and Heritage come under one ministry. In Bahrain, Industry and Commerce are joined with Tourism.

Identified as winning arrangements, the unification of tourism with critical areas of the state have resulted in formulas that have generated positive results, boosted countries and increased their returns. At present in Sri Lanka, incorporating Tourism and Lands into one ministry, baffles the analyst and undoubtedly the sectors in question, as well.

Sri Lanka is in dire need of a national strategy outlining the goals and objectives of the next couple of decades, and an action plan to achieve the same, in order to overcome the numerous challenges that beset the country. Into such a strategy, tourism needs to feature high on the list of priorities given the potential of the sector. Adopting slogans or changing heads does not contribute to tangible benefits. Instead a comprehensive exercise needs to be adopted to realize real change and harness the full potential of the industry.

A strategized plan, akin to those which are activated in neighbouring countries, will give tourism its due place of significance. All too often the focus is on mainstream markets. Many large countries generate large numbers of tourists, and do so for many other countries and not necessarily Sri Lanka only. The emphasis has been on these countries, especially in relation to roadshows and other promotional activities. Tapping into smaller countries in all regions, which have the purchasing power is essential so as to derive the most from Sri Lanka’s international relations and foreign representation.

Of heightened importance in Sri Lanka is the incorporation of tourism within the sphere of foreign affairs. While representatives of the Department of Commerce support the promotion of tourism in Sri Lanka’s foreign missions, it is not a sufficient arrangement. Often a single officer is required to promote trade, tea and tourism plus attract investment, which is a near impossible task for a single individual. Much greater human resource allocation, concerted policy formulation and strategized implementation is required. A common dilemma is funding. However, if one is to get the best out of a process, that which goes into that process has to be the best as well, otherwise the result is substandard. This has been experienced in Sri Lanka for quite some time, and successive governments believe that the panacea is merely adopting slogans and changing heads at the helm.

Sri Lanka possesses a national airline which is said to fly to 126 destinations in 61 countries. A joint strategy wherein the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sri Lankan Airlines and the tourism sector collaborate would yield much higher dividends. Further, Sri Lankan missions in capitals around the world, should be the key nodes liaising with airlines in their respective countries of accreditation and enhance the attractiveness of the island. These missions need to form the framework through which tourism is promoted. It cannot be left to individual ministries to conduct in their vacuums, and must instead be a joint effort, which is result oriented, reviewed periodically and overhauled when required to enhance the returns.

Within the country clear understanding is required of all that the country has to offer. For decades the island has relied on specific locations, cuisine or pageants. Little attention is paid to diversity, and therein lies opportunities that have been hitherto untapped. Going off the beaten track, researching interests of those who have already visited, and attempting to explore new avenues remains at the heart of the exercise of enhancing tourism in Sri Lanka. This information needs to be generated using the plethora of technology that is available, and disseminated it across the world in a multipronged attack that would make the world talk about Sri Lanka for all the right reasons and not keep harping on that which is not.

A small island, surrounded by tiny islands, possessing an abundance of wildlife, nature, terrain, norms and traditions, is undoubtedly rich. Its riches come from its profusion of resources and passionate people. It however lacks a cohesive strategy that would ensure the synergy of cooperation. Such a strategy would help the island nation recover from the man-made economic crisis, overcome the rigours of the attacks and pandemic, and surge into the 21^st century as a travel and tourism hub in Asia, far outweighing its competition in the region.

This article first appeared in the October 2022 edition of the HOTELIER Magazine of the Sri Lanka Hospitality Graduates Association (SLHGA)

THE DEMOCRACY THAT IS INDIA: INTRIGUING, EVOLVING AND INSPIRING

Marking 75 years of Indian Independence

By George I. H. Cooke

Preserving democratic values, ensuring the maintenance of democratic standards and strengthening the process of democratization, are formidable measures for any country. When a country with a population of nearly one and a half billion embraces democracy as its political ideology, continuously champions this system for more than seven decades and implements it across the entirety of its length and breadth and at all levels of its political being, it is clear that democracy has been able to withstand much. India is today the largest democracy on the planet, and with its position comes much responsibility.

The democratization of India, whereby the world saw the abandoning of hereditary monarchical systems, and the dismantling of the privileged structure that had existed even through colonialism, was to set India on a pedestal. Yet this pedestal was not one of natural influence and ability. It did not occur accidentally either. It was to be one on which and from which India, her leaders and people would be called upon to formulate and implement policies that would sustain democracy, nurture its values and ensure that all - irrespective of their communities, religions and castes - who identified as Indian, would be beneficiaries. The journey was not without its challenges, but it is the journey itself that remains remarkable.

The Intrigue - Lessons of the Past

At Independence, Jawaharlal Nehru, was at pains to ensure that India remained a secular nation, which rallied around the Indian flag and identified primarily as Indians, before all else. Undoubtedly it was a firm foundation that gave the Indian nation a strong start. His presence at the helm for seventeen years till 1964 guaranteed that the seeds he sowed would have the opportunity to grow unhindered for nearly two decades. In many neighbouring countries of South Asia, leaders at independence did not survive for even a decade thereafter to see the results of their pre-independence struggles or to fully implement policies they deemed fit for their emerging countries.

India thus received an advantageous commencement on a journey, that has seemed more like a race, with neighbours, with the Cold War, with non-alignment, and with economic liberalization among other entities and concepts, but most importantly with internal challenges of keeping a country as diverse, as different, and as divided as India, together. This diversity is upheld today as a great boost for image and publicity in the international community. Yet arriving at the present involved much cohabitation, compromise and cooperation, that was, is and continues to be unparalleled in the world.

The Evolution – Overcoming Challenges

While it is argued that the holding of elections at regular intervals and electing leaders are not the totality of democracy, they are key components. In the last 75 years Indians have elected leaders and political parties and in so doing removed others, who were subsequently bought back at later times. Leaders have resigned, died in office, been assassinated, Parliament has been attacked, the fundamentals of democracy have come under siege, but despite all of these occurrences and much more, the Republic remains strong. Presiding over a federal system that aims to embrace the diversity and overcome the differences is a complex task. In reflecting upon that which has been, it is evident that the complexity has been comprehended. If not, the Republic would have disintegrated quite some time ago.

Lincoln observed that people remain at the core of any democracy. Whether the ones who are elected, or the ones who elect, it is people who are the direct beneficiaries of any democratic society. Thus, people must never leave the equation nor allow themselves to be excluded from it. If any attempt has been made or is being made to restrict that which a democracy affords, all effort needs to be exerted to rein in the constrictions and permit instead the prevalence and proliferation of all that a democracy stands for.

In neighbouring Sri Lanka, the oldest democracy in this part of the world having gained universal franchise in 1931, when efforts were underway to undermine people, with ill-advised policies, erroneous decisions, incompetent leadership and heightened corruption, that collectively misled a nation of 21 million, people rose up. In proof that democracies are constantly evolving, the people forced leaders out of office due to the aforementioned reasons, and demanded change. While mandates are given at elections, mandates can also be withdrawn especially through mass protests that signify the displeasure of the people and their desire to safeguard the democratic standards that are enshrined in the constitution and which must be preserved in a democracy.

The Inspiration - Strategizing for the Future

Democracy with all its complexities and connotations is still the optimal governance system for any country. Giving people the freedom to elect their representatives who in turn are called upon to formulate sound policies which would have a positive impact on the entirety of the polity, is by far the accepted form of governance, and is widely practiced. India, as the world’s largest democracy has a bigger burden. This is not confined to the implementation of proactive democratic principles within the country alone. It extends to the immediate sub region, the greater Asian region, and the international community. The Indian model, despite its complications and conundrums experienced within, is still the largest working model in the world today. With the growth in population, this position is not likely to be changed for the rest of the 21^st century, and would only be further strengthened in the decades to come.

The onus is thus on India. Indian leaders have an obligation to their people, which extends beyond. The first obligation is to the people of the vast country to be able to live in a society that enshrines basics freedoms, guarantees equality in all respects, and promotes understanding amid diversity. At no time must the citizenry of a country that occupies this primal position be forced to compromise on their freedoms, have their voices silenced, find themselves bereft of recourse to justice, encounter an erosion of democratic institutions, or have any form of ideology foisted upon them. The liberal nature of democracy can create space for such challenges to thrive, but it is the people who remain at the core, and who must be able to thwart any weakening or destabilizing of the democratic norms upon which their nation has been built.

The second obligation is to countries that adhere to the democratic form of governance. If a country the size of India falters, the repercussions would be widespread. Thus far the country has survived in close geographic proximity to two of the largest countries, that advocate different policies of governance. Whilst their preferred policies have been implemented for decades, and would prove effective for them as a means of governance, the larger Asian neighbourhood has adopted democratic norms, as has most of the world. Any faltering or failure to remain the strong, representative democracy that India was envisioned to be at independence, would prove detrimental to many.

Given the challenging global environment in which democracy attempts to thrive, with a skew of ‘isms’ disrupting countries and their courses, India has a third obligation to the democratic tradition as a whole. The concept was first coined in the middle of the 5^th century to denote the system of governance in Greek city states, which had populations of several thousands. Thereafter it survived millennia, and is today practiced in a single country that possesses a population of nearly one and a half billion. This is testimony to the fundamental importance of the system, its traits and what it proffers its adherents. Therein India remains an inspiration to all, from fledgling states to well-founded ones, and cannot renounce its role.

As India surges ahead towards further milestones, it is the action taken at present, that would see the country emerge as a global giant or remain a regional power. Whether through partnerships with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) or membership in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) or even Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), through intensified performance in larger multilateral bodies like the United Nations and its affiliated agencies and organizations, or even in its bilateral relations in South Asia and the world, India can readily rely on two key features, democracy and diplomacy. Both have been strategically implemented and have stood the country in good stead. However as with all key characteristics, no lapses can be encountered, no slips allowed and no mistakes permitted.

India’s place in the world, and also in history has been guaranteed to a large extent by its democratic credentials, which have been bolstered by an effective diplomatic apparatus. In its engagement with the people of India, the people of the region, and those of the world, the Indian leadership has and must continue to safeguard democratic ideals, and guarantee their implementation. A strategized foreign policy administered by an effective and efficient diplomatic structure will see the country raise its stakes for global leadership, realize that which was envisaged more than seven decades ago, and reinforce the enormity of potential and opportunity of the country and her people.

 

 

 

 

 

SHINZO ABE: PRESERVING HIS LEGACY

Guest Commentary by Banura Nandathilake

Subscribers to international relations often come to a junction between theories: Realism, which posits a zero sum world where external circumstances such as hard power and anarchy that are beyond any individual define the ways in which states do what they do, and constructivism which understands an interdependent society of states where leaders truly have an tangible impact on inter-state relations through social mechanisms. The case for the latter seems to outweigh the former in the analysis of Shinzo Abe however, who left an ineffaceable mark on Japanese foreign policy, by guiding a largely pacifist Japan to one that actively moulds and shapes the security, economic and diplomatic architecture of the Indo Pacific and beyond.

As the heir of a distinguished political family, Abe entered politics in the 1990s where he sought to largely continue the policies of his grandfather, the former Japanese Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi: Regain the ability to exert Japanese power on the regional and world stage by removing the shackles imposed by the US and a faction of the then Japanese political class. As such, Abe went on to become Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister with four terms (2006-7, 2012-14, 2014-17, 2017-20). On 8 July 2022 however, in an event that stunned the heavily gun restricted Japan, the former Japanese Prime Minister was shot and killed during his campaigning run for his party in the Japanese city of Nara. Despite the untimely passing of the "shadow shogun", the direction of Japan's future may be influenced by, thereby correlate with Abe's "vision" to a great extent (Green, CSIS 2022). Japan has built a full-fledged national security establishment, an estimated 1.7% growth in GDP in 2022, and is a bastion of neo liberal democratic policies in the Indo pacific. Below is an obituary for a man who had a heavy hand in reawakening Japan, wherein his effect on domestic and foreign policies will be appreciated.

Domestic Political Legacy

While for many, Abe’s career was one of dramatic and unlikely turns which spanned 14 years and saw him into extraordinary power to influence the direction of Japanese domestic policy, Sheila Smith of Council on Foreign Relations and others understand that a revised domestic constitution may be Abe's major legacy.

Just two days after Abe’s assassination, the Japanese voted in the Upper House election, awarding the government led by the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida their anticipated victory. Interestingly, Smith notes that the assassination had no credible change in the election environment. The voter turnout was on par with previous years, and Abe’s party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had a structural advantage as the smaller opposition parties did not form a united front thus further dividing the vote. As such, an Upper House win by the LDP could open an avenue for a Constitutional revision, once an ambition of the former Prime Minister. While factors that may postpone an immediate revision do exist, she notes that a revision could have a lasting impact on Abe’s legacy.

Abenomics

Abe’s vision was of regaining the ability to exercise Japanese power, by losing her shackles imposed by low domestic economic power and capital, which can then be turned into military might and diplomatic currency. However, Japanese capabilities were idling, due to the lack of opportunities as per legal and international constraints in the post WW2 era. In the understanding that securing Japan’s future would require an economy with a new foundation for growth, the economic programme “Abenomics” was born. The programme was an attempt to kickstart Japan’s dormant capabilities through expansionary monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and a long list of industrial, labour, and regulatory policies to incentivise endogenous development. Abenomics aimed to shift production from agrarian or low value sectors to high income productive sectors to slow the decline of Japan’s labour force, in an “serious, sustained, and flexible attempt to grapple with Japan’s growth challenges” (Harris, FP 2022).

Abenomics was instrumental in reviving the Japanese economy, as well as supercharging Abe’s political career. The programme reversed years of stagnation, boosted corporate profits and state tax revenues, thereby reducing unemployment and crime. As such, Abe was able to coast past domestic elections, pausing the tradition of short-lived premierships in Japan. The resulting political durability allowed him to pursue long term ambitions, such as creating a National Security Council which distilled the defence apparatus through the Prime Minister’s office. Such a creation then allowed for a more active foreign policy over the existing passive structure, which sought to strengthen regional ties while balancing against regional hegemons. 

Japan-India Relations

Relations between Cold war Japan and India were one of polite distance: Japan was a US ally, while India was procedurally non-aligned with some overlap of interests with the USSR. Despite the deterioration of the said relations during the 1988 Indian nuclear missile test and the Japanese economic sanctions that followed, the two states were quick to repair and rebuild a “global partnership’’, proposed by the Japanese Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro a few years later during his visit to India. However, it was Abe that built the stage for a more cohesive and interdependent Japanese-Indian relationship, such as the “India Japan Strategic and Global Partnership’’ (2007). Bilateral relations were further strengthened during Abe’s third term in 2014 through a “special and strategic partnership,” which encompassed diplomatic, security and economic sectors. Trade between Japan and India increased exponentially from 2007, while Japan and India cooperated on security issues in the Indo-Pacific through the Quad.

Moreover, it could be understood that Abe's 2007 visit to India was not only significant for the Japan-India relationship, but also India’s perception of itself and its role in the region (Miller, CFR 2022). Miller understands that it was Japan that influenced India, ‘a notoriously reluctant and cautious actor in global politics’ to join Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, which now serves as an ideological, economic and military buffer to the rise of China. This vision of the “confluence of the two seas” - Pacific and Indian, were first outlined by Abe in his speech during his first visit to India in 2007, and laid the foundation for the “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept which was later adopted by the United States.

China and the Quad

China’s rise in the contemporary era has been unprecedented. An authoritarian political system combined with a quasi-capitalist economic system has allowed China to gain regional hegemony and a global great power ranking, allowing its influential military, economic and diplomatic alliances. Such a rise presents a growing threat and demands a balance of power between China and the US and Allies. Of those allies, Abe represented a significant one: Japan.

While Abe was central in expanding India's position in the Indo-Pacific, his pragmatic approach to relations with China demanded a closer look. Abe could be considered a soft liner on Sino-Japan relations, so much so that he was called a "traitor" by many Japanese patriots. This may be so since the uneven economic balance of power weighed more towards China than Japan: Japan needed China for trade and manufacturing, than vice versa. However, as Mireya Solís, the director of the Centre for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution understood, despite his efforts to maintain closer relations with China “Abe felt very strongly that Japan could not live in an Asia where China had hegemony”. As such, Abe’s pragmatism recognised that despite interdependence and globalisation, China represented a challenge on all fronts, diplomatic, economic and military. Ergo, Abe may have been instrumental in setting the tone for the Japanese defence apparatus. Furthermore, Abe subscribed to right leaning nationalist policies domestically, as he helped coax a pacifist Japanese public to oppose China’s meteoric and bullish rise, further laying the groundwork for the direction of Japanese foreign policy.

However, his vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific may have trumped all else. His influence soon superseded national and regional boundaries, as President Joe Biden, who once worked with Abe as the vice president during the Obama administration, put it “He (Abe) was a champion of the Alliance between our nations and the friendship between our people”, and promised to continue Abe’s “vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific” (2022). The US and Japan, along with India and Australia, form the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which represents a bulwark against China in the Indo-Pacific. While the US had more economic and military might than Japan, Abe was still paramount in laying the rhetorical groundwork for the Quad, “providing structural, conceptual ideas to things that needed to be provided at a time when it seemed like it was crumbling.” (Hornung, 2022).

On Taiwan

A great power conflict in East Asia appears to brew over the Island of Taiwan which stands a stone's throw away from the shores of China. While the ideological divide stems from the great powers US and China, US allies such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are not passive watchers either.

Japanese leaders before Abe were uncomfortable with using force to defend Taiwan, as implications of such a move for Japanese security, and how Japan's responses to such scenarios were heavily debated. But it was Abe that argued in 2021, “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance. President Xi Jinping in particular, should never have a misunderstanding in recognizing this”. Abe was thus paramount in transforming Japan’s relationship with Taiwan to counter threats from China, for he recognised a hegemonic China posed a risk not just to the security of the liberal democratic states of East Asia, but their economic and sociological institutions as well. As such, Prime Minister Abe emphasised shared economic, political and ideological values between Japan and Taiwan, where he referred to Taiwan as a “precious friend,” an angle the incoming governments adopted thereafter. Abe was an advocate of stronger relations with Taiwan so much so that he went on to argue that the US policy of strategic ambiguity was “fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region” as he called out the US to “make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion.”

Furthermore, it was during Mr. Abe’s tenure as Prime Minister that one of the major sore points in the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Japan were resolved. After 17 years of negotiations, in 2013 Japan and Taiwan concluded Japanese recognition of Taiwanese Fishing rights in the East China Sea. As such, affection for Abe and Japan in Taiwan have reached record highs. Thus, after the news of Abe’s passing had reached Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen honoured “Taiwan’s most loyal best friend” with the national flag flown at half-mast.

Shinzo Abe could be called a realist, for he understood that despite diplomacy and the multilateral handshaking, states with different value systems and interests must communicate through hard power and deterrence. But to call him a pragmatist through the constructivist lens could be more apt, as he understood that despite anarchy and hard power considerations, leaders are still able to make a difference in the domestic and foreign policies of a state, thereby keeping up with an evolving world stage. As the world honours him in his passing, it is now up to his successors to carry his legacy forward.

 

MARCOS JR.: THE PRODIGAL SON RETURNS

Guest Commentary by Banura Nandathilake

The Philippines is in its Fifth Republic. The First was established when the US acquired it from the Spanish. The Second by the Japanese, the Third by the Americans after WW2, which lasted until Ferdinand Marcos Sr.’s martial rule. The Fourth was created when he lifted martial law, and survived until the revolution which toppled the Marcos Government, thereby starting the Fifth republic. On June 30^th 2022, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. became the seventeenth president.

Despite being the son of the former brutal kleptocratic President Ferdinand Marcos Sr, he succeeded Rodrigo Duterte in a landslide election victory. With doubt, scepticism and demands for accountability surrounding him, Marcos Jr. is largely expected to continue the policy course pursued by the Duterte administration. However, the capability for his incoming government to curb rising domestic inflation, while steering the Philippines through a great power conflict happening a stone's throw away from its shores, thereby restoring the Marcos name remains to be seen.

Like Father, Like Son?

Ferdinand Marcos Sr. may be considered as one of the most controversial statesmen of the 20th century, with trademarks of unparalleled corruption, extravagance and state sponsored violence. During the 20 years he spent as the President of the Philippines, his first term was about socio-economic growth. It was a facade however, as the budding kleptocrat had financed domestic infrastructure and public projects through unsustainable debt. Such practices culminated in extreme poverty, inflation and gross inequality during his second and third terms. In 1986, the “people power” revolution resulted in him, his family and his wife Imelda having to flee into exile in Hawaii, with their amassed fortune. While Mrs Marcos left behind her infamous shoe collection, her husband brought with him jewellery, gold bricks and freshly printed Philippine currency, collectively worth around $15 Million. During his time in office, they had plundered more than $10 billion from the Philippine state, most ever recorded in the world. They in fact held an official Guinness world record for largest-ever theft from a government, until Guinness took the record down before his son’s 2022 election. During his time in power, thousands of innocents, including Muslims, alleged communists, dissidents, suspected opposition actors and media figures were tortured, jailed without due process or murdered by the regime’s cronies.

Ferdinand Marcos is the second child and only son of the former president, aged 64 as of 2022. He began his journey in politics at 23, as the Vice Governor of Ilocos Norte (1980–1983) during the years of his father’s reign, until his family’s political exile to Honolulu. Imelda Marcos and family were allowed to return to the Philippines after the death of Marcos Sr. in 1989. While procedurally it was to face charges for misallocation of state resources and corruption, stagnant politics allowed the Marcos’ re-entry into politics. Ferdinand Jr. returned back to the historical Marcos stronghold of Ilocos Norte as its Governor in 1998 for 3 consecutive terms. In 2007, Marcos ran unopposed for the congressional seat, and was appointed deputy minority leader of the House of Representatives of Philippines. In 2010, Marcos Jr. made a second attempt for the Senate in 2010, and entered office on June 30, 2010. Despite multiple scams wherein Marcos Jr. had diverted state funds totalling upwards of ₱305 million to his own account, he contested in the 2016 vice presidential campaign, albeit unsuccessfully. In the 2022 Presidential election however, Marcos Jr. along with his running mate and Vice-President Sara Duterte won 59% of all votes casted. Duterte is the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte - the outgoing president, who campaigned with Marcos Jr. following a split with her father, thereby resolidifying the Marcos hold on office in a system dominated by dynasties.

For all but a minority of mostly older Filipinos, the prospect of another Ferdinand Marcos in the presidential palace is horrifying. For them, Bongbong’s presidency can only result in a return to kleptocracy, as they intone: those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. The following questions thus arise: Did the Philippines forget history?  Was history rewritten by tools of the future? Or was it desperation, a new ruler following the inability of the previous to rule?

The Rise of Marcos Jr.

Marcos Jr’s rise to political power, from exile with his father to an apparent rightful throne of political apex, maybe analysed as the result of four main factors: drawn out multiyear effort to whitewash the Marcos name, skillful alliance building and political manoeuvring, the penchant of Philippine voters for political dynasties, and the inability of those already in power to govern.

History Forgotten or Rewritten?

Marcos Jr's popularity was kept afloat in his voter base through an aggressive social media campaign, aptly using the tools of the future to rewrite the narrative of history. YouTube and social media were jammed with constructed campaigns pushing a revisionist view of history as the Marcos era being one of crime-free prosperity, not of human rights abuses, extravagant corruption and near-economic collapse. Such a campaign proved appealing to voters who were not only too young to experience the Sr’s dictatorship but had experienced years of relative economic growth and prosperity. If analysed statistically, of the 110 million citizens of the Philippines, the share of population in extreme poverty has decreased by almost 20% since the death of Marcos Sr. in 1989 and the poverty gap has reduced by almost a billion However, the old-age dependency ratio has increased by almost 3% while the age dependency ratio has decreased by about 20%. The median age in the Philippines is 26 years (Ourworldindata.org). Fact checking of the Marcos campaign found that it was 92% disinformation in favour of the Marcos, and 96% opposing his main rival (Tsek.ph). As such, it could be understood that there exists a wide generation gap, and most of the population thereby voters are likely to be younger than older. Furthermore, due to the gap in ages, there exists a gap in memories of the tormented and children of the tormented, which is being exploited to restore the Marcos name.

But the recent events were not all social-media magic. A survey conducted in 1986, three months after the revolution, found that 41% thought he had been “true to the duties of a patriotic president”, which increased to 56% in 1995. In 1986, 44% agreed that he was a “severe, brutal or oppressive president”, while 60 % disagreed in 1995. Such a phenomenon could be aptly summed up by the quote, “Not many of us would care to hold a grudge against someone long dead, not even someone like Ferdinand Marcos'' (Social Weather Stations, 1986, 95).

A Squid game

Since Marcos Sr. died in exile in 1989 and the family returned to the Philippines, the Marcos family have manoeuvred around provincial and national offices from their base in Ilocos Norte, in the north of the country. They have since portrayed the dictatorship as a "golden period" of political stability, economic prosperity and lawfulness, which resonated with many Filipinos mired in poverty, violence and years of corruption.  As Marcos Jr. said, “My father built more and better roads, produced more rice than all administrations before his”. While his critics have accused his social media campaign of misinformation attempting to tone down or whitewash the atrocities under his father's rule, Marcos Jr. further propelled his election campaign by having Sara Duterte as his running mate.

Apart from political games, Marcos Jr. represents a political dynasty, and such a move allowed him to expand his voter base island wide by merging two political dynasties and their strongholds: Marcos of the northern Philippines and the Dutertes of the southern Mindanao island. Furthermore, the new Marcos cabinet relies on technocrats, such as the former Central Bank Governor Diokno, the Transport Minister is the former head of the national airlines, and the Defence Chief is the former Army General, following on the established norm of his predecessor.

New Ruler due to the inability of the Old?

Marcos Jr succeeds Rodrigo Duterte, who as most other elected presidents in the Philippines, started off strong with a popularity boost, but then nosedived. Duterte, unlike Marcos, rose to power as an outsider, as a defender of the ordinary, but lacked apt political governance, resulting in economic stagnation and an air of judicial impunity. His “war on drugs'', which saw at least 30,000 people dead as a result of extra-judicial killings, has attracted international condemnation. His alliance with China has bought little investment and has not curtailed Chinese incursions in the shared South China Sea. His administration of the Pandemic resulted in the economy shrinking by 6% and less than half of Filipinos are fully vaccinated. Such events raise the question however: does the Philippines not elect its Presidents for their proven ability to govern, but instead for the inability of those still in power to do so? A pick between the lesser evil, not between the better of the two? If so, it would not be unlike most other democratic, developing states in Asia.

An Opaque Domestic Policy

Marcos Jr. comes to office at a time of a post pandemic stagnant economy. The Philippine peso is one of Asia’s poorest performing this year, and global recession and inflation is on the horizon. While Marcos has promised to promote self-sufficiency in food due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, his campaign speech was shrewd, devoid of policy details or platform wherein it promised to leave the middle class largely alone as he fulfils the common expectations of Presidents. While he did promise a “comprehensive infrastructure plan” however, in which “no part of the Philippines will be neglected”, he left out any hope for accountability for the sins of his father, or the theft. Nevertheless, he is expected to largely continue the policies of his predecessor, along with his aforementioned technocrats.

Marcos' presidency may not be a means of transforming Filipino society, or addressing structural issues. It is instead the end in itself, a culmination of attempts to whitewash history, and re-solidify the Marcos name to its apparent throne. A significant portion of the population however, almost 40%, may not accept the result. Attempts to disqualify Mr Marcos are underway. Concerns of patronage politics incentivising monopolistic or oligopolistic practices have mounted, adding to the climate of impunity that rules the country.

Diverting from Sr. in Foreign Policy?

A Marcos-headed Philippines remains on the tightrope between the US, its traditional and treaty ally, and the regional hegemon China, whom it has a costly territorial dispute with. Adding on is its distance to Taiwan, wherein it could be on the front line in any conflict between the great powers.

While Marcos has indicated he wants better alliances with the US than Duterte did, who steered Philippines’ foreign policy toward China and Russia, signalling that Washington may have wooed Marcos Jr. just like Sr. This may not mean Philippine-US ties would trump Philippine-China ties however, as Marcos Jr., has long had a close relationship with Beijing. Marcos Jr. is said to be China’s preferred candidate, and has already declared China to be Philippines’ “strongest partner” despite the former’s growing encroachment of the latter’s territorial waters, thereby echoing sentiments of his predecessor. Marcos may still be susceptible to the same anti-Beijing swells of the public however, which limited Duterte’s options in the latter part of his presidency, but such may be conditional on how much more infrastructure funding he is able to draw. Of course, in the age of great power rivalry, the question remains of the cost.

While the Marcos name may have risen, analysts have deemed Mr Marcos’s administration to be likely marked by protests and instability. While that may result in economic stagnation and political roadblocks, along with an opportunity for both the US and China, how long will the Marcos name stay afloat? It may be entirely feasible for Ms Duterte and Mrs Arroyo, a past president, to provide a balance of power in the government, while his technocrats do most of the policymaking. While his congressional record does not suggest he has many big ideas, at least not ones associated with a strongman, they do not suggest he's big on righting the wrongs of history either.