WHY COLOMBO FEELS HOTTER THAN EVER: A City Trapped in its Own Heat

By Nisika Chamadith

How has it been to live in Colombo lately? How often do you think of air conditioners or at least, how often have you been using air conditioning?

Colombo's heat has surged in recent years, turning life in the city to a literal nightmare. Many residents will agree that getting a good night’s sleep has become nearly impossible due to the immense nocturnal heat. In 2024, Colombo recorded its highest average monthly temperatures in history, predicting that it could only be getting worse. While climate change plays a major role in rapid heat waves, the way that the cities are being designed only contributes to the problem. In Colombo, the accelerated urbanization, reduction of urban forest cover and the rise of the concrete jungle has contributed to a lesser known but deeply harmful phenomenon: the Urban Heat Island effect.

Reflecting on Colombo: A transformed city

There is no doubt that Colombo has had one of the most accelerated growth rates in less than a decade. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Colombo developed at a slower pace and maintained a considerable green cover, creating a favourable climate mixed with the sea breeze. While the rapid post-war development has contributed largely to the economy and the tourism industry of Sri Lanka, it was one of the major contributors to the growing heat of Colombo. The statistics show that Colombo’s Urban cover has increased by 40% during 1997 to 2017 (Wijerathna et al., 2021), suggesting that the numbers are much higher at present. A city that once had colonial style low-rise buildings has now turned into a dense urban hub with a notable skyline.

The Science Behind the Heat

A. Effects of Global Warming

It must be accepted that Global Warming plays a major role in intensifying the other factors that contribute to the urban heat increase. Yet, the topic of Global Warming is not given much prominence in Sri Lanka and even when it is addressed, it is among the few who actually sees the effects of Global Warming. But one might hear complaints from family, friends, or colleagues about sleepless nights due to the persistent heat. Dangerously yet, IPCC’s sixth annual report, 2021, depicts that the night time minimum temperatures are rising faster than the day-time maximums, suggesting a major climate shift. The meteorological department furthermore showcases that extreme heat days of 36-38 oC may now occur frequently in March - May seasons. All these facts and data points to one clear truth: Climate change is here and yes, it is affecting Sri Lanka. The increase of surface temperature of Colombo city by 1.6 oC between 1997 and 2017 due to urban expansion not only confirms the effects of global warming in the city, but also alarms about a much worse tomorrow.

B. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect

Before explaining the intensity of the effect, it is better to understand this lesser-known phenomenon. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect refers to the significant increase of the temperature of the urban areas compared to their surrounding rural areas, especially at night. This is due to a combination of human activities, building materials and infrastructure. Urban areas tend to absorb heat by built surfaces. This absorbed heat gets trapped between tall buildings and narrow roads, creating what is known as “urban canyon effect”. More factors such as lack of vegetation and human activities such as vehicles, air conditioners and electricity usage release waste heat, further adding to the trapped heat and warming up the surrounding.

Although one may think of a city like the New York City when reading the above scientific explanation, the effects of UHI are very much present in Colombo city as Colombo has developed a strong UHI where urban areas are 1.5 - 3 oC higher than the surrounding areas (De Silva & Ekanayake, 2016). A spatial analysis done using MODIS thermal satellite data furthermore confirms that “Heat islands are clearly visible in the city core and intensify during dry seasons” (Hearth & Ratnayake, 2016).

Impact on Daily Life

The rising heat of the city does not only irritate the residents but also impacts their lives both directly and indirectly. Heat related illnesses such as heat strokes, dehydration have increased, particularly for children and outdoor workers. In February, 2024, the Ministry of Education suspended all sports activities for 2 days, followed by a detailed guideline due to the extreme heat prevailed during the days. The same guideline can be seen in February, 2025, showcasing how the heat is already affecting the school children, predicting a possible threat to the education and after school sports activities in the near future.

The rising urban temperature leads to more energy consumption as everyone’s life depends on the continuously spinning fans and the air conditioners. This is indeed directly affecting the lives of the civilians as there will be an increase in their electricity bill. Yet, it is a further burden for the electricity suppliers as the depend is high in the Urban areas. As a result, electricity consumption in Sri Lanka peaked during heat waves, largely due to the increased use of fans and air conditioners (PUCSL, 2022)

The low-income communities of Colombo face greater vulnerability due to the rapid increase of heat in the city. Poor ventilation and tin-roofed homes, especially in slum areas and densely populated areas in Dematagoda, Wellawatta, Dehiwala, are direct victims of the unbearable heat waves that Colombo experiences from time to time. It must also be mentioned that outdoor laborers such as construction workers and delivery personnel may experience reduced work hours due to unsafe heat conditions. According to the international labour organization (2021), Sri Lanka risks losing over 1.2% of total working hours by 2030 due to heat stress, impacting the GDP of the country.

Way Forward: Planned Cities & Stronger Policies

A well laid out plan is urgently required to combat the impacts of the temperature rise in Colombo. The Environment Impact Assessment is mandatory in every development activity that takes place within the country. However, it is crucial to introduce an Urban Heat Impact Assessment, prior to approval of the development project via the Colombo municipal council to assess the contribution to Colombo’s heat island. Moreover, updating the Colombo Metropolitan Regional Structure (CMRSP) to include components such as prohibition of heat-intensive materials in dense urban areas and tree-to-concrete minimum ratio for all construction projects are initiatives that should be taken urgently. Communities can also participate in heat-resilient urban restructuring by transforming underused public land such as, rooftops of government buildings, schoolyards, balconies and transit stops, into community green spaces.

The Colombo Municipal Council may also advise the schools in Colombo to expand their schoolyards by integrating shaded learning spaces, trees and naturally cooling play areas, helping children to cope with heat waves. More importantly, the urban planners are encouraged to introduce the vertical garden concepts for all residents as well as the workplaces as it may help drastically in reducing the canyon effect in Colombo city. Although Colombo is already a planned city, integrating climate resilient strategies has proven to be challenging. Yet, even the minor step could make a greater impact.

Urban planning alone may not be sufficient to tackle the issue hence, the support of the country’s legal system is much required. Although many might be unaware, it is crucial to highlight that Colombo City does not have an Urban Climate Resilient Policy. One may argue that such a policy dedicated to a city is unnecessary as the national climate policy exists. In such a context, why must Colombo have its own urban Climate Resilient Policy? Simply because the major threat of rising temperatures in the city due to the urban heat island effect only prevails largely in Colombo so far. Hence, the requirement of such a policy with a dedicated chapter on urban heat mitigation must be introduced under the Urban Development Authority or the Colombo Municipal Council for making better decisions and mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the Colombo Municipal Council should be encouraged to introduce cooling ordinances such as green walls, cool roofs and covered walkways in order to optimize the maximum heat resilience in development projects.

Conclusion: Rethinking Colombo for a Better Future

The sleepless nights, exhausting afternoons and the immense heat indicate that the effects of climate change are here and Colombo, unfortunately is becoming a prime victim of it at an alarming rate. Government bodies, the general public and other environmental organizations must urge the need of a strategic system to combat the heat crisis that is immense in Colombo. This article does not intend to deny the impacts of global warming that affects the whole of Sri Lanka but rather highlight the immense heat waves that Colombo keeps experiencing, which is unusually high compared to the other regions. This may be the problem of Colombo today but will soon be an island wide issue covering all major cities. Hence, now is the time for awareness, action and implementation of a well laid out framework to combat and avoid urban heat islands through better urban planning, restructuring and updated policies before it is too late.

References: Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka. (n.d.). Weather and climate data.

De Silva, R. P., & Ekanayake, E. M. S. (2016). Urban heat island effect: Case study in Colombo metropolitan area. Sri Lankan Journal of Geology and Earth Sciences.

Herath, S., & Ratnayake, H. (2020). Land surface temperature trends in Colombo using MODIS satellite data. Remote Sensing.

Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka. (2022). Annual report 2022.

UNDP Sri Lanka. (2020). Climate risk country profile: Sri Lanka.

Wijerathna, C. D., Herath, H. M. W. A., & Gunathilake, S. K. (2021). Monitoring urban heat islands in Colombo using remote sensing data from 1997 to 2017. Remote Sensing of Environment.

World Bank Group. (2022). Climate change knowledge portal: Sri Lanka.

STRENGTHENING INTEGRATION: BIMSTEC as a Regional Pivot in Disaster Management

By Amasha Fernando

Disaster Management and Mitigation have become an essential concern within the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal, as many states face a rapid increase in climate catastrophes in the region. From powerful cyclones such as Fani (2019) and Fengal (2024) to the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in March 2025, which resulted in the loss of more than 3000 lives up to date in Myanmar, the region has faced alarming natural disasters, significantly, in the post-COVID-19 era since 2020. This has not only challenged the ecological balance of the region but also paved the way for massive damage to the regular lives of people.

These adversities, which escalate day by day, are a prominent concern addressed at national and regional levels within organizations such as ASEAN, BIMSTEC, and international coalitions like the G20. However, the frequency of the occurrence of natural hazards and their rising intensities calls for the need for practical and sustainable solutions at the national, regional, and international level.

In this context, the role of BIMSTEC in disaster management has increased considerably, as the changes in natural weather systems, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, create a significantly adverse impact on economic growth within the region. This article aims to discuss the latest developments of the climate catastrophes while exploring the effectiveness of current disaster mitigation mechanisms and offering suggestions to enhance the quality of assistance and humanitarian aid provided.

State of Nature Hazards within the Bay of Bengal littorals

The Bay of Bengal region, comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, has experienced multiple climate-related disasters in recent years, including cyclones, earthquakes, floods, and landslides. Renowned as the ‘Kalapani’ or the Black turbulent waters (Bose, 2023), the Bay of Bengal region faces at least 5 to 6 cyclones per year, while annual floods in states such as Bangladesh and India affect millions of lives. These directly result in deaths, infrastructure damage, and displacement while affecting livelihoods and economic functions of the region on a broad scale. According to National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) reports, 7, 516 km of India and 716 km of Bangladesh are exposed to nearly 10% of the world’s tropical cyclones. (Dhruba, 2023)

In comparison with the West, these cyclones possess unique characteristics and effects of wind speeds and rough seas, mainly affecting the weather conditions of states such as India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. An often-highlighted event among these is the Indian Ocean Tsunami, which occurred in 2004, resulting in over 30,000 fatalities, along with a US$1.5 billion economic loss in Sri Lanka alone, marking the most devastating natural disaster the island nation has faced to date. Simultaneously, over 10, 000 lives were lost within India due to this, followed by deaths in Myanmar and Thailand, and economies in all these states were affected as well, with the damage caused to agrarian lands. (Bose, 2023)

Many cyclones, such as Komen (2015), Roanu (2016), Amphan (2020), and Fengal (2024), which occurred during the past few years, affected communities largely in Myanmar and Bangladesh, in the following years marking a series of cyclones in between. These resulted in floods, rough seas, and torrential downpours, which worsen situations in the nations in the Bay of Bengal. As a result, floods become a frequent occurrence in these nations annually. According to government reports, floods in Kathmandu, Nepal, in September 2024 have killed more than 60 people, while 66 have gone missing. (OCHA, 2019) Moreover, scientists predict that Bangladesh, India, and China will be among the top 10 nations with the highest risks of facing the highest rainfall changes by 2100. (OCHA, 2024)

The latest alarming disaster occurred in March 2025 with the 6.4 and 7.7 magnitude earthquakes, which devastated Myanmar, affecting nearly 9 million people who belong to 58 townships. The disaster resulted in nearly 3, 600 deaths, while 4, 800 people are reported to have suffered injuries. (UNICEF, 2025) Severe infrastructure damage, which includes 2, 311 schools and 193 healthcare facilities, has been reported, while vulnerable groups such as women and children face shortages of medication and other essential items.

In addition, states in the Bay of Bengal are prone to the novel developments of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme heatwaves, and loss of land, with coastal erosion. World Heritage sites such as the Sundarbans Mangrove Forest, the Sinharaja tropical rainforest, and their ecosystems are significantly affected by such conditions, worsening the ecological balance within the region. According to World Bank reports in 2000, the rise of sea levels by one metre tends to destroy the whole Sundarbans region. (Jabir et al., 2021) Meanwhile, island nations in the Indian Ocean, such as the Maldives, are at risk of being completely submerged by the rising ocean levels.

Climate Actions Taken as a Regional Hub

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was the primary catalyst that sparked discussions on disaster management within the region at the BIMSTEC level, shifting the irregular patterns of disaster mitigation from occasional aid provision for disasters such as cyclones. Following the 1994 Oslo guidelines on “The Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defence Assets in Disaster Relief”, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) was introduced to the region, creating action plans at state and BIMTEC levels. The evolution of participation in disaster management comprises several stages. (Bose, 2023) They can be identified as follows. 1. Passive Phase (1997-2005) 2. Provisionally Responsive Phase (2005-2006) 3. Phase of Dormancy (2007-2014) 4. Proactive Phase (2015 to the present)

The passive phase consisted of the initial level agreements within the organization, where the groundwork for natural disaster mitigation and management was introduced. However, disaster management within the region was not considered a prominent concern at that juncture until the Tsunami of 2004 became the wake-up call to cooperate in disaster management. In the aftermath of the Tsunami, ‘Environment and Disaster Management’ was considered a fundamental area of concern within the region through the introduction of many collaborative efforts, with other organizations such as the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) were pivotal in creating institutional solutions in disaster response.

Mechanisms such as conducting workshops, knowledge sharing, emergency response and the establishment of early warning systems were done, with the aid of foreign nations and international bodies such as the United Nations. Creation of the BIMSTEC Centre on Weather and Climate Change was prominent in this regard, as it nurtured frameworks to sign agreements at bilateral and multilateral levels, creating room for discussions in the sectors of multinational cooperation in managing disasters. (Cook & Chen, 2021) Predominantly, India led these initiatives as a regional powerhouse, in creating relevant policy frameworks and responsible institutions.

However, with the absence of substantial financial cooperation within the region, BIMSTEC’s unity in disaster management was largely dormant from 2007-2014. (Bose, 2023) Disaster management was limited to emergencies and early warning mechanisms during this time, while documentation efforts such as approving a Memorandum of Association to establish a Centre of Weather and Climate Response were made in strengthening preventive measures. Reasons such as the impending change of chairmanship in the organization, the need to establish a permanent secretariat in Dhaka, and the change of India’s maritime cooperation doctrine, paving the way for a prolonged era of inaction.

The change of political leadership after the election of 2014 marked a positive change in the activities of BIMSTEC. The Modi government focused on fostering cooperation through multilateral collaborations, establishing India’s role as the “net security provider” in the region. (Cook & Chen, 2021) However, the significance of India within the BIMTEC as a regional power and an emerging world power has created points to ponder, as the power imbalance may create a situation where climate issues of small nations are rejected.

The unity of BIMSTEC nations was further strengthened with the introduction of India’s “Act East policy.” Disaster risk prevention policies, such as the Sendai Framework (2015-2030), aim to establish common information systems to track disasters within the region and exchange best practices. (Bose, 2023) Capacity building was a spotlight in discussions redefining the bounds of environmental governance and disaster response. Measures such as Disaster Management Exercises (DMXI), Field Training Exercises, and After-Action Reviews were introduced in this regard, finding creative ways to address the rapid changes of climate change. The first BIMSTEC DMXI exercise was held in India in 2017, while the initiative’s latest workshop involved five member states. (Cook & Chen, 2021)

Moreover, the importance of the Indian Ocean sea lanes was identified while discovering potential paths for integration in transportation in trade, and managing diverse security interests. While the strategic importance within the region increases daily with China’s presence in the Indian Ocean, with initiatives such as the BRI, BIMSTEC has a pivotal role in strengthening integration and capacities of disaster prevention measures.

When considering the present-day context, many measures, such as capacity-building initiatives and strengthening mechanisms, are followed within the organization. These were suggested through the joint declaration issued by BIMSTEC leaders who gathered at the 6th BIMSTEC summit on 4th April 2025. Collaborating with the Indian Ocean Rim Association and encouraging maritime transport cooperation within the littoral states further creates opportunities. Such collaboration in preventing natural hazards and common measures will address the economic losses and infrastructure damage while creating a secure environment for people, ensuring their safety and medication.

Future of Disaster Management within the Organization

The responsibility to prevent future disasters within the region is undoubtedly bestowed upon regional organizations such as BIMSTEC, as the solutions for these should be institutionalized and implemented sustainably and practically. While the organization has gained commendable progress in building a stable foundation for disaster management, growing intensities of natural hazards within the region demand immediate action while encouraging integration in collective disaster prevention methods.

Thereby, maintaining consistency in disaster prevention methods and maintaining coordination between disaster management centres within littoral states and authorities are crucial in efficient disaster management. India’s 2025 proposal to establish a BIMSTEC Centre for Excellence in Disaster Management Secretariat would be an active measure to create disaster readiness in the region. This centre would act as the central point of contact for managing disaster-related data, conducting risk assessments, and coordinating cross-border disaster response (Bhatt & Garge, 2023). In order to address the existing gaps in financial emergencies, the centre needs to have sufficient funding from a regional disaster relief fund and the authority to make its own decisions (Chaudhary, 2023).

Moreover, it is crucial to develop climate surveillance technologies and transboundary early warning systems. Initiatives like the BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate (BCWC) offer an essential platform, but they need to be expanded and technologically improved in cooperation with regional and international partners like the United Nations, WMO, and ADPC (Cook & Chen, 2021; Bose, 2023). The European Meteoalarm system is an example of a real-time, shared warning protocol that BIMSTEC could use.

Measures should be followed to reach the grassroots of society in creating disaster awareness, bridging the gap between policy formulation, institutionalisation and practical implementation of disaster management methods. Frequent trends of climate catastrophes should be identified in preserving danger-prone environments such as the Sundarbans (Jabir et al., 2021) while ensuring an inclusive space for all nations. The importance of the Indian Ocean as a strategic hub should be rediscovered while promoting inter-organizational endeavours for disaster prevention.

Thus, it is crucial to strengthen regional cooperation through BIMSTEC because the Bay of Bengal region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate-related disasters. The growing frequency and severity of natural hazards—ranging from cyclones and floods to earthquakes—have not only exposed ecological fragility but also tested the social and economic resilience of millions. Even though the organization has advanced significantly since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, its framework for disaster management still needs strong institutionalization, funding, and inclusivity to keep up with new threats.

BIMSTEC has the potential to become a key player in regional disaster governance through improved cooperation, scientific innovation, and people-centred policies. BIMSTEC can genuinely fortify the ties by integrating disaster preparedness into the larger framework of economic and humanitarian integration.

References

Bhatt, R., & Deepali Mohan Garge. (2023). Unifying in Crisis: An Exploratory Analysis of Organizational Structures for a Regional Disaster Framework in BIMSTEC. The Journal Institute of Public Enterprise, 46(1), 49–68. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375003509_Unifying_in_Crisis_An_Exploratory_Analysis_of_Organizational_Structures_for_a_Regional_Disaster_Framework_in_BIMSTEC/download

Bose, S. (2023, May 24). BIMSTEC and Disaster Management: Future Prospects for Regional Cooperation. Orfonline.org; OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION ( ORF ). https://www.orfonline.org/research/bimstec-and-disaster-management-future-prospects-for-regional-cooperation

Chaudhury, R. (2023, June). Disasters without borders: Strengthening BIMSTEC cooperation in humanitarian assistance. Orfonline.org; OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION (ORF). https://www.orfonline.org/research/disasters-without-borders-strengthening-bimstec-cooperation-in-humanitarian-assistance?amp

Cook, A. D. B., & Chen, C. (2021). Disaster Governance in the Asia-Pacific: Future Pathways to South and Southeast Asia (pp. 4–16). Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Death toll climbs as torrential rains pound Nepal - Nepal. (2024, September 30). Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/report/nepal/death-toll-climbs-torrential-rains-pound-nepal

Dhruba, B. (2023). The Solar Influence on Tropical Cyclones Occurring over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. ECAS 2023, 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecas2023-15123

Jabir, A.-A., Hasan, G. M. J., & Anam, Md. M. (2021). Correlation between temperature, sea level rise and land loss: An assessment along the Sundarbans coast. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2021.07.012 Mahida, R. (2024). BIMSTEC: BAY OF BENGAL INITIATIVE FOR MULTI-SECTORAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION: SWOT ANALYSIS FROM INDIAN PERSPECTIVES. International Journal of Management, Public Policy and Research, 3(4), 7–15. https://doi.org/10.55829/ijmpr.v3i4.247 OCHA. (2019). Relief Web - Informing humanitarians worldwide. Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/

UNICEF Myanmar Earthquake Flash Update No. 6 - 09 April 2025 - Myanmar. (2025, April 9). Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/unicef-myanmar-earthquake-flash-update-no-6-09-april-2025

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE 2022: DEEPENING DIPLOMACY AND DEFENCE

GUEST COMMENTARY by Banura Nandathilake

On 12^th June, Asia Pacific’s leading forum for defence diplomacy - the Shangri-La Dialogue ended after a pandemic-induced three-year hiatus. While the Dialogue is procedurally focused on cultivating a sense of security community within the Asia Pacific, which it solely lacks, this year’s event concluded under the uncertain shadow of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the increasingly tenuous US-Sino relations.

The Shangri-La Dialogue is an intergovernmental security conference held in Singapore, by the London based think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in collaboration with the government of Singapore. The Dialogue is chiefly attended by state actors such as Military chiefs, Defence and Foreign Ministers. However, non-state participants too, such as legislators, academic experts, distinguished journalists and business delegates attend the summit. Named after the host venue since 2002, the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, the forum serves as a platform for debate, expression of views and discussion on specific issues through bilateral meetings. However, off the record meetings are also held, chaired by IISS, to advance policy goals more freely.

Apart from the host nation, participating countries for the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue included Australia, Cambodia, Brunei, Chile, France, Canada, China, India, Germany, Japan, Indonesia, Laos, South Korea, Myanmar, Mongolia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Russia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sweden, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Thailand, Vietnam, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Dialogue was attended by about 500 delegates from more than 40 countries.

Forum Proceedings

The 2022 Dialogue, as all previous sessions, was commenced by Dr John Chipman, the Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS. This year’s keynote address was given by Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan, who set the overall tone for the dialogue - the need for security cooperation and collective action between state and non-state actors in the Asia pacific to counter growing threats in the region and beyond. Broad topics such as the US Indo-Pacific Strategy - a significant shift of resources from the Middle eastern theatre, Competition in a Multipolar world, Military Modernisation, Prescriptions for Myanmar and China’s vision for Regional Order were covered. 

US-China Relations - a String Pulled Taut

The 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue was a significant milestone in contemporary US-China relations. The forum facilitated a meeting between the U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and the Chinese Defence Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe, the first face-to-face encounter since President Biden's inauguration in January 2021. Any hope or reassuring signs of reinstalling lines of direct communication were dispelled by the increasingly sparring headline speeches and subsequent conversations between the two nations, on topics ranging from the status of Taiwan, proceedings within the South China Sea and questions and concerns surrounding grave human rights violations within China.

The US primary criticism of China’s international conduct centred around the latter’s coercive and aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea, wherein China has constructed man made islands within the shared seaway in an attempt to solidify its claim to the areas enclosed by a ‘9-dash line’ which is claimed by Beijing to grant it exclusive rights, despite non-recognition by international law. “Indo-Pacific countries shouldn’t face political intimidation, economic coercion, or harassment by maritime militias,” Secretary Austin asserted, as “the PRC’s moves threaten to undermine security, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.” He further reaffirmed the US position to defend its interests and those of its allies despite increased Chinese movement, mobilisation and pressure.

Secretary Austin’s Chinese counterpart's response was as headline jarring as his. Minister Wei Fenghe described his country’s position as one of self-defence in a global world of zero-sum, self-interested actors. Wei acknowledged his country’s increased nuclear and naval capabilities, in a speech peppered with warnings to tread carefully and avoid Chinese provocation. He further reaffirmed China’s strong stance of a rising great power, one of self-defence but also a crave for international legitimacy through recognition as a peaceful actor. Wei stressed that “It is a historic and strategic mistake to take China as a threat or enemy”. To ensure global peace and development, by virtue of China now being a great power, Wei called for a stop in attempts to “contain China, to stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, and stop harming China’s interests,” signalling that peace was conditional on China’s free reign. His speech further contained a stronger reiteration of the Chinese position on the disputed island of Taiwan - “If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China – let me be clear – we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end.”

Shared Ukrainian Costs

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy participated in this year’s Dialogue for the first time through a video link teleconference. Highlighting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he urged the attendees of primarily Asian states to “remember that support and attention is not only for Ukraine but for (the greater Asia) as well, to ensure that our and your future is safe’’ in the contemporary globalised world. Despite Ukraine’s geographical distance from Asia, Russia’s invasion of his country has global implications, as the political, social and economic distance between countries are much shorter in the present than they ever were. Thus, the costs of war are shared between states, through trade interdependence, geopolitical institutions, and have direct effects such as rising global inflation.

Mr Zelenskyy further stressed that there are ideological costs, as “it is on the Ukrainian battlefield that the future rules of this world are being decided along with the boundaries of the possible.” His position drew clear parallels and a not-so-subtle nod to China's desire for Taiwanese reunification. The political alignments and the ideological divides of the attendee states were made abundantly clear as Prime Minister of Japan Kishida noted that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” further adding to the underlying tension of the Dialogue.

Collective Concerns of the Divided

Despite the lack of collective action on political qualms and tensions owing to non alignment of political compasses, the attendee states of the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue remained receptive to prescriptions for collective concerns. The Dialogue served as a platform to tackle contemporary issues such as global underdevelopment and need of environmental security as a response to climate change, and the green defence agenda wherein the low-lying nations of Maldives, Polynesia and Micronesia were focused upon. The scope of prescriptions for global development and climate degradation are far beyond a single state, and collective action of all nations has shared global benefits. However, talks of nuclear disarmament were pushed by Prime Minister Kishida, who raised the potential for nuclear weapons of China, Russia and North Korea, to cause devastation more than that which was experienced in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Despite such a statement representing a significant change in the security environment, as it differed from the zero-sum, negative peace structure of the past, it was not well received possibly as one nation may seek to gain more from the said action than the other.

Why They Do What They Do

Security forums such as the Shangri-La Dialogue would be those where one is likely to hear more bad news than good. However, the 2022 forum was not so much a “glass half empty but more of a vessel placed precariously close to the edge of a table, one small slip away from smashing to pieces” (Sachdeva, 2022). As New Zealand Defence Minister Henare noted, there existed “an underlying tension”.

Borrowing from the English School of International Relations (Buzan et al 2002, Bull 1977) would contribute to an apt analysis of the Shangri-La Dialogue. Great power interests define international aspirations and ambitions, even in regional institutions. The Dialogue subscribed to the broad tensions of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the US-China hostilities. Military diplomacy and international institutions which are dominated by great power interests, and smaller developing states are more rule takers than agenda setters. Further, international and weak regional institutions would have little sway in changing great power behaviour and are platforms for great power machinations. Weak regional institutions and forums would have less stringent rules, and less enforcement of such rules which would serve as checks and balances to the power of larger states. Fora such as the Shangri-La Dialogue, as opposed to stronger institutions such as NATO do “not provide much in the way of reassurance about the future trajectory of the relationship (between states) and only reinforces the sense that competition between the two powers is likely to linger thereafter” (Parameswaran 2019).

The fact that the sour relations between US and China continued on since the 2019 Dialogue, which was dominated by the subject of heightened U.S.-China competition serves to solidify the aforementioned understanding.

Despite such dire notions for international cooperation and mitigating global anarchy, the Shangri-La Dialogue represents a necessary, albeit insufficient platform for diplomacy and the peaceful resolution of differences between states. Institutions are only as strong as the rules that states are willing to enforce on themselves. However, institutions and fora such as the Shangri-La Dialogue are still important platforms which aim to resolve statist tensions through negotiated compromise and diffused reciprocity over hard power coercion and war (Keohane and Nye, 1977). The contemporary world is interconnected, with the space and time between events and reactions to such decreasing at an exponential rate. The contemporary world cannot afford to disregard the power of diplomacy for in the words of Henry Kissinger, despite animosities of history, diplomacy serves as means of restraining power.

 

MARITIME CONVENTIONS, DISASTERS AND HUBS: SRI LANKA’S DECISIVE HOUR IS HERE

 World Oceans Day 2021

 By George I. H. Cooke

The territorial waters of Sri Lanka have experienced maritime disasters for centuries. The presence of numerous hulls on the sea bed around the country are testimony to the battles that were fought, and the accidents that occurred in close proximity to the island nation. Whilst the hulls are a grim reminder of the past, the impact on the environment at that time remains sketchy, and hardly any lessons seem to have been learnt from each disaster. Much has remained unaccounted for and hence the repetition of such catastrophes is witnessed. Sri Lanka, known by various names in the centuries gone by, was a shipping hub with the presence of numerous international traders, trading companies and countries that vied for engagement with the island from pre-colonial through to colonial times.

Sri Lanka's strategic maritime importance

The island remained of strategic maritime importance to the British, whose military expressed concern at the granting of independence, owing to the connectivity the island afforded. A report of the British Chiefs of Staff dated May 05, 1947 noted that “The island forms an essential link in our cable and wireless network to Australia and the Far East. It is also the centre of our naval intelligence organisations for countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Inability to use Ceylon would deprive us of the only existing main fleet base between Malta and Singapore and would seriously weaken our control of the Indian Ocean…”

From the first Prime Minister onwards, attention was focused on the strategic importance of the island. D. S. Senanayake in his independence message observed that “We are in a specially dangerous position because we are on one of the strategic highways of the world. The country which captures Ceylon could dominate the Indian Ocean.” Such was the importance attached to the locality not only from a strategic perspective of geopolitics, but also owing to the relevance of the island from security and commercial angles.

At the height of the Cold War nuclear action by the two power blocs in their tussle with each other could have had far reaching repercussions. In 1971, Ceylon’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Hamilton S. Amerasinghe called for the inclusion of an additional item in the agenda of the 26^th session of the UN General Assembly on the ‘Declaration of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace’. Later in October 1971, Ceylon’s Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike called for the acceptance of this proposal to avert a crisis in the Indian Ocean by prohibiting the passage of military vessels. The effort was to raise concern about the potential impact that war could have on the countries of the Indian Ocean, and the disasters that would grip the countries of South Asia and its neighbourhood. 

The Blue Economy

The continuous stress on the relevance of the oceans, is now on the concept of the Blue Economy and its potential, especially for a country like Sri Lanka. As the island looks to strategize beyond merely fishing, and focuses on the multitude of opportunities that oceans provide, Sri Lanka is looking to enhance its shipping connectivity, and evolve into a maritime hub once again. This potential could be realized through the multifaceted aquatic resources, aquaculture, seabed deposits, marine biotechnology, as well as the beaches which heavily support the tourism industry. However they would all be heavily affected not only in the short to medium term after maritime disasters, but would also face the long term impact which damages the ecosystem and the economy. At present urgent commitment to the improvement of standards, abiding by international regulations, and enhancement of facilities remain critical areas that deserve immediate attention.

Maritime Hub 

In order to evolve into a maritime hub in the 21^st century unlike how it was centuries ago, Sri Lanka needs to be more aware of its international obligations and effectively study the conventions which have been ratified, as well as those which have been bypassed for varied reasons at the time they were adopted at the international level.

In the last two decades alone several maritime disasters caused immense concern, and much damage in Sri Lanka’s territorial waters. In 1999 MV Melishka began sinking off Dondra and finally ran aground off the Bundala coast. It subsequently deposited 16,500 metric tonnes of fertilizer and 200 metric tonnes of heavy fuel oil. 2006 saw MV Amanat Shah causing a spill of 25 metric tonnes of oil and dropping over 800 teak logs into the ocean off Kogolla. Further up the eastern coast of Sri Lanka, in the seas off Trincomalee, the MT Granba experienced a leak in 2009, leading to the eventual sinking of the ship and its cargo of 6,250 tonnes of sulphuric acid. In 2019, when the vessel, Sri Lankan Glory washed ashore in Galle timely action resulted in the removal of 15 tonnes of fuel on board which averted a further disaster. Similarly in 2020, another large scale disaster was mitigated when the MT New Diamond carrying 270,000 tonnes of oil caught fire east of Sri Lanka but was eventually towed out of territorial waters although an oil slick was reported at the time.

The latest incident concerning MV X-Press Pearl off the western coast of the island highlights once again the risks faced by maritime nations but more importantly draws attention to the need for countries to be prepared for such eventualities. Whilst the preparation remains very much national, it is only through international collaboration that countries are able to raise standards and ensure readiness for any form of disaster that might occur within and beyond its territorial waters. 

Maritime Conventions

It was collective action that saw a Convention establishing the Inter-Governmental Maritime Consultative Organization (IMCO) in 1948, as the main specialized agency of the United Nations mandated to ensure ‘the safety and security of shipping and the prevention of marine and atmospheric pollution by ships.’ The Convention came into operation in 1958 and IMCO convened for the first in 1959. Whilst the name of IMCO changed to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 1982, the objective of ‘Safe, secure and efficient shipping on clean oceans’ continued.

Sri Lanka ratified the Convention in 1972 only after the country called for international action to safeguard the Indian Ocean. Whilst the Convention had been in operation for well over a decade it was a national requirement that led to the subsequent ratification. Several Conventions that were initiated from then onwards have been ratified by Sri Lanka while many others remain unratified. It takes a national requirement to re-examine these Conventions. The current development off the western coast of Sri Lanka and the environmental disaster that is already being witnessed for miles along the coast is a critical juncture for Sri Lanka to re-examine the maritime conventions that have been ratified and ensure complete implementation, while also identifying those which have not been ratified and to take suitable action at the earliest.

The International Convention for Safe Containers (CSC) which came into force in 1977 is yet to be ratified by Sri Lanka. First drawn up in 1972, after a study of the safety of containerization in marine transport, the CSC has two objectives. Whilst it is aimed at maintaining internationally accepted levels of safety of human life, it also attempts to lay out international safety regulations. This uniformity is crucial given the universality of the shipping industry.

The International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) which was adopted in 1973 and has several Protocols that were introduced in the ensuing years, has seen Sri Lanka ratifying Annexes I, II, III, IV and V, but not VI. Covering the prevention of pollution of the marine environment and ecosystems by ships due to operational or accidental causes, the Convention’s six technical annexures call for strict adherence in the areas of oil, noxious liquid substances, harmful substances carried by sea in packaged form, sewage, garbage and air pollution. The Convention remains a landmark agreement that deserves much deeper study especially in addressing the current situation in Sri Lanka.

The International Convention relating to Intervention on the High Seas in Cases of Oil Pollution Casualties was adopted in 1969 and came into force in 1975. While Sri Lanka ratified the Convention, the 1973 Protocol is yet to be ratified. This Convention gives countries like Sri Lanka ample area for action when vessels cause maritime disasters and is yet another Convention that needs to be invoked in the current scenario.

The International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation (OPRC) which was adopted in 1990 and came into operation in 1995, has not been ratified by Sri Lanka. This Convention calls upon parties to it to “establish measures for dealing with pollution incidents, either nationally or in co-operation with other countries.” These are not adhoc measures but instead are ones which are strategized upon well in advance and are thus operationalized as and when disasters occur. Ships are required to have a ‘shipboard oil pollution emergency plan’ and member states to have ‘stockpiles of oil spill combating equipment, the holding of oil spill combating exercises and the development of detailed plans for dealing with pollution incidents.’ With the IMO playing the crucial role of coordination, this Convention is essential for countries, especially Sri Lanka as the island develops into a maritime hub. Further, a Protocol related to hazardous and noxious substances was adopted in 2000.

The International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) was adopted in 1969 and came into force in 1975, and thereafter was replaced by the 1992 Protocol which came into force in 1996. Sri Lanka has ratified the 1992 Protocol which calls for adequate compensation at times of oil pollution damaging the territory and territorial sea of a State Party to the Convention. The 1992 Protocol also expanded the operability of the Convention to include the exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (HNS) was first adopted in 1996 but did not come into force. It was superseded by the 2010 Protocol which is also yet to come into force. Only Canada, Denmark, Norway, South Africa and Turkey have ratified the Protocol which proposes the establishment of a two tier system for compensation wherein the first tier involves the ship owner’s insurance providing funds and the second tier draws from a fund formed by recipients of the HNS. The payment of dues towards this fund is seen as a stumbling block in its ratification as the amount is calculated based on the amount drawn in the preceding year. For it to come into force ‘at least twelve States, including four States each with not less than 2 million units of gross tonnage, [need to] have expressed their consent to be bound by it’.

The International Convention on Civil Liability for Bunker Oil Pollution Damage (BUNKER) which was adopted in 2001 and came into force in 2008 is yet to be ratified by Sri Lanka. The Convention lays emphasis on damage owing to spillage of fuel from the ships’ bunkers, and is free-standing covering pollution damage only, and applies ‘to damage caused on the territory, including the territorial sea, and in the exclusive economic zone of States Parties.’ This is yet another convention that enables countries to recover from disasters.

Conclusion

Some of the aforementioned Conventions have been ratified, others have not been fully ratified and still others have not been ratified at all. Although the immediate action required on the ground and at sea is to curtail the spread of the pollutants from the sinking vessel, it is paramount that steps are taken to address the issue from a holistic perspective wherein Sri Lanka does not have to suffer similar consequences and is instead further prepared to tackle such challenges, which will undoubtedly occur in the future.

In the short term, the disaster caused by the MV X-Press Pearl remains a clarion call for immediate action to ensure that the Conventions that have been ratified are invoked and adequate measures taken to address the catastrophe that is unfolding along the western coast of the island and has the potential to spread further. Coordination with IMO and States Parties to the ratified Conventions need to be explored instantly to identify avenues for technical cooperation that is needed at present.

In the medium term, a comprehensive study is required of Conventions which have not been ratified to date, noting the reasons for non-ratification and attempting to overcome challenges that might have been perceived in the past which stopped Sri Lanka from ratifying these Conventions. Further, measures are required pursuant to a comprehensive analysis, to ratify these internationally recognized, standard setting instruments which are critical for island nations, and especially for Sri Lanka given its geographical positioning, and future ambitions.

In the long term, a widespread study is required of all Convention that have been ratified and action taken to ensure that Sri Lanka continues to abide by the stipulations enclosed therein, which would eventually be rewarding for the country as it improves standards and journeys further down the path towards becoming a maritime hub.

Sri Lanka has long yearned to be identified as a maritime hub. Yet maritime incidents such as that which occurred in May 2021 which possess the potential of escalating into massive environmental catastrophes the impact of which will continue to be felt for years, remain challenges that require concerted, strategized action. It is only when, at the national level, action is taken to implement Conventions, which are directly beneficial to signatories as they hold States Parties to high standards and regulations that concrete steps would be taken towards maritime hub status. Such status is rewarding from an economic prism, and it is relevant to ensure that the standards prescribed by internationally binding Conventions are implemented as they thwart all forms of damage, if not, try to mitigate the damage that could be caused through maritime incidents.

However the damage experienced by each and every maritime incident cannot be undone or overcome completely, the compensation cannot bring the marine creatures back to life, the underwater world which was already under immense stress due to global warming has now been further impacted and those who relied on the seas to sustain lives and livelihoods have been collectively affected. It is a truism that development comes at a cost.  Nevertheless urgent measures are needed to reduce the impact on the environment, stringent plans are required to have been formulated and rushed into operation when an incident occurs, and an overall vision is vital to diminish the negative impact of progress and development. All of this can only be achieved through thorough strategizing across all sectors, under a comprehensive national plan of action.

The disaster of 2021 is not the first to hit Sri Lanka, and will not be the last that the country experiences, but it should at least become a moment of realization. Realization of how all sectors are closely integrated across the country, how engaged Sri Lanka is with the international community, and very importantly, how cooperating in a proactive and mutually beneficial manner, will give Sri Lanka the opportunity to rise and take her place among counterparts in the region and beyond. Until this moment of realization dawns, and appropriate action is taken, maritime hub status, or any other form of hub status, will remain elusive.

 

 

TRUMP, TEMPERATURE AND TIME

The attacks in London, explosions in Kabul, terror attacks in Manila, incidents in Melbourne and diplomatic turmoil in the Arab world, all increased the threats of the times, as manmade tragedies abound and levels of fear remain high. Yet amid the obvious destruction being wrought, the globe continues to slide into further peril as temperatures rise and climate change is probably our silent enemy.

Forty five years ago, the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment deemed it necessary and timely to integrate human interactions and the environment. The landmark decision in 1972 saw the commemoration of the first World Environment Day in 1974. Action over the decades has included commitments on the part of states, which haven’t always been realized owing to the nature of that which has been pledged. The reductions beings sought are from the industry, which states have to convince and entice into respecting. Irrespective of the nature of the arrangement, the undertaking has been considerable.

On the eve of the 2017 commemoration, the American President opted to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which had taken tremendous effort and courage to finalize, and which came into operation in November 2016. Seen as new course in the global climate effort, the Agreement saw states trying to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by maintaining a global temperature rise well below two degrees in the 21^st century.

Prerequisites set by the United States for ratifying such international treaties are many. Back in the nineties at the height of negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol, the US Congress passed the Byrd-Hagel resolution which made it compulsory for developing countries to first actively participate in the setting of global emission targets, if America was to be a signatory. The effort in 2015 was equally challenging, though then President Obama claimed it was due to ‘strong, principled American leadership’ that the accord was finalized. One and a half years later, that American President isn’t in office, neither is his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, or the Chairman of the Conference, former Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, nor even the then UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. The leadership has changed, yet the commitment is expected to remain resolute.

Trump’s decision to withdraw unless the Agreement is re-negotiated or a new one is evolved, indicates the supremacy with which he views the world, the lack of understanding of the environment and more importantly the inability to comprehend the destruction that America has wrought on the planet. Speaking in the Rose Garden, he stressed that ‘exiting the agreement protects the United States from future intrusions on the United States’ sovereignty and massive future legal liability.’ He also revealed that with the opening of new coal mines in ‘Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia (and) so many places’ American workers, whom he loves very much, given the consecutive expression of endearment, would benefit. The risk posed to humanity as a whole, appears irrelevant.

The creation of the United States Climate Alliance has seen the Governors of California, New York and Washington pledging their support to the Paris Agreement. Inviting other states to follow suit, the Alliance being established has the support of three key states that jointly contribute one-fifth of the American GDP and at least ten per cent of American greenhouse gas emissions. In calling for states and cities to join the effort, the move could be one towards the rise of such entities, reversing the international order, as city-states return to the forefront, as was seen with London in the Brexit vote.

Efforts have been made in the last several decades to curb environmental harm, degradation and destruction. From the 1962 Convention for the Prevention of Pollution of the Sea by Oil, to the Ramsar Convention of 1971, the MARPOL Convention and CITES in 1973, the Montreal Protocol of 1987, the Basel Convention of 1989, the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio as well as the Kyoto Protocol, have all aimed at preserving the planet, from diverse threats created by humanity.       

Climate change remains as real as it ever has been. Trump need not look too far to see climate change in action. When the 27^th American President, William Howard Taft created the Glacier National Park in 1910, it encompassed 150 glaciers, which have been reduced to a mere 30 a hundred years later, as the area has shrunk by two-thirds. As environmentalist Daniel Glick warns, ‘from the Arctic to Peru, from Switzerland to the equatorial glaciers of Man Jaya in Indonesia, massive ice fields, monstrous glaciers, and sea ice are disappearing, fast.’

Yet the world has been reminded of the importance of American coal workers, and the preservation of their jobs, casting aside concern that those very same workers’ future generations might not be around to carry on the work envisaged for them. Until and unless greater concern is demonstrated for the wellbeing of the other, nature will ensure that the threat of rising temperatures remains our foremost enemy. Unfortunately time for action, maybe fast running out.

• Awarelogue Editorial