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Monday, May 8, 2023

CONVERTING TRADE INTO POWER – The European Single Market at 30

Reflections on Europe Day 2023

by George I. H. Cooke

 

The impact of trade on countries that engage in it heavily internationally, and the overall effect it is having on international relations as a whole, continues to baffle. European historian, Norman Davis, points out that “Western Europe’s greatest success story lay in the realm of economic performance. The speed and the scale of economic resurgence after 1948 was unprecedented in European history, and unmatched in any part of the world except Japan. It was so unexpected and spectacular that historians cannot easily agree on its causes. It is far more easily described than explained.”

Herein lies the crucial argument for trade and its intensification, which the European Union, as the foremost model of integration, has been able to achieve. As the Union marks three decades since the establishment of the Single Market, it is prudent to reflect upon that which has been achieved individually by countries, and collectively by the region.

Geared towards facilitating the free flow of goods, services, people and capital, the depth of integration was first envisioned in 1957 through the Treaty of Rome. Considered to be well ahead of its time, the Treaty proposed the reduction of customs duties, establishment of a customs union, creation of a common market, as well as common transport and agricultural policies, and even envisaged the setting up of the European Commission, which is one of the most unique institutions in multilateral bodies.

It was the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on 7 February 1992, that led to the establishment of the Single Market on 1 January 1993 bringing together 12 EU countries, notably, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom. With the expansion of the Union, the Single Market now comprises of the 27 EU Member States and also includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, while Switzerland has a degree of involvement as well.

The European Commission highlights that the Single Market has been able to make three distinct shifts - ‘accelerating the transition to a greener and more digital economy; guaranteeing high safety and leading global technological standards; and responding to recent crises with unprecedented speed and determination” – but from an analytical point of view, it has made the European Union one of the strongest trading blocs, and boosted its currency globally. This translates to power on the world stage, that many other regions which have attempted integrating can only aspire to, and are yet to realise.

While the deepened integration might be questioned against the backdrop of the exit of the United Kingdom, it needs to be examined for the progress and impact made over the last three decades. Greece, is probably the EU member that has faced the most trying of financial times in recent years, hence the Greek Foreign Ministry’s assertation that “the seamless operation of the Single Market is a precondition for a strong economy that will benefit all Member States, citizens and businesses and that will meet the conditions of global competition,” is testimony to its resolute commitment to the Single Market. In contrast, Germany, seen as the foremost and strongest economy in the Union, has benefited immensely from the Market. The Bertelsmann Foundation notes that “Germany benefited most in absolute terms from the single market, earning an extra 86 billion euros ($96 billion) a year because of it.”

At first glance it appears that all countries are benefitting from the Single Market, but it is important to note that the advantages accrued vary from one member state to another, and is largely dependent on their size, economy and strength. There is relative gain with Germany for example gaining tremendously, and Greece gaining relatively less, but gaining nonetheless.

Arguments on the contrary claim that the Single Market remains an illusion, which is yet an ‘ongoing project’ despite its many decades of implementation. Fredrik Erixon and Rositsa Georgieva of The Five Freedoms Project, claim that “While the nature and profile of the Single Market, and its regulations, have changed over the years, they often have focused on the wrong issues, or on factors that would not change the nature of markets as such.” This observation relates specifically to the Services sector, with their further claim that “The piecemeal approach to reform, followed until now, has created a complex web of regulations, administrative rules, national discretion, and partial freedoms. Fractional and incomplete liberalization have reduced the potential gains.”

Similarly, highlighting the legal obstacles to implementation, Copenhagen Economics, points out that “the functioning of the Single Market is a shared responsibility between the EU and the Member States. Differences in interpretation and application of EU law are inevitable. Despite years of hard work and substantial real progress, we appear to be some distance from having a well-functioning Single Market, free from unjustified or inappropriate obstacles to free movement.”

Although three decades might not have yielded a completely consolidated system it does however indicate much progress that is yet to be achieved by other regional groupings. The EU Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton argues that the Single Market is “much more than just a legal framework – or indeed a market. We need to continuously preserve, improve and re-invent this formidable asset.” Breton calls for three crucial measures to ensure that progress. He notes that “first, by ensuring that the rules we have agreed collectively are also applied collectively. Second, by putting SMEs at the centre of Europe’s competitiveness. Third, by ensuring that people and businesses have access to the goods and services they need, when they need them.”

While Breton’s assertion contributes to the concept of the Single Market being an ‘ongoing project’ it indicates the need for collective action for any progress across the grouping. This collective action might not always be forthcoming owing to domestic developments as seen with Brexit, and its impact on the region in particular, and regionalism in general. While Brexit delayed deeper integration, it also raised the question over the amount of integration. However, the United Kingdom had first raised concerns about the European model two years after joining in the mid-1970s. Therefore, the example of the Brexit needs to be examined in different light. Of relevance however, is continuous call for collective action. If Member States pull in different directions, or differ largely over policy and its implementation, the model is on rocky ground.

Yet the acceleration of economic development across the region, the enhancement of trade, and the removal of barriers, has led to the Single Market remaining a firm foundation upon which countries are able to build solid cooperative mechanisms. The Single Market also causes a return to the basic understanding that those who trade are less likely to engage in conflict.

A decade ago, the Stanford Graduate School of Business focused on the research of Matthew O. Jackson and Stephen Nei, who suggested that “military alliances alone aren’t enough to stop nations from attacking one another, and also that the addition of multilateral economic trade creates a more stable, peaceful world.” In their paper on Networks of Military Alliances, War and International Trade, Jackson and Nei observed that “once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify…trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks.”

Member States of the European Union embarked on an ambitious programme of integration after the Second World War with trade remaining at the centre, but these members did not sacrifice defence either, and many are Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Thus, military alliances have not been completely forgotten or sidelined, but have been nurtured too, and especially so in the last three decades. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, NATO evolved, and this evolution is attributed to Member States taking concrete action to ensure their preparedness if and when required.

While Europe has been able to avoid war among its constituent, yet sovereign entities, it is today grappling with war on its border as Ukraine and Russia continue to engage violently. However, NATO not activating a no-fly zone over Ukraine despite demands for the same from Ukraine, has probably been the saving factor that has ensured that war has not spilt over into Europe, and in fact the entire world.

The collective military might, coupled with the trade prowess, has given the European Union a higher degree of power. Three decades after the Single Market came into operation it is relevant to question whether trade ensured the inclusion of power into the equation, especially in light of the strength of the currency of the EU, and its financial markets. A currency of several European member states used by approximately 340 million people daily, is today the second most widely used currency globally, with 60 partner countries or territories also using the currency in some form.

The 69th plenary meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs (COSAC) is due to convene in Sweden next week. A background note for the session on the Single Market has been circulated prior to the meeting. It claims that “Over the last three decades, the single market has promoted healthy competition and created strong economies and industries across the continent. The removal of barriers for goods, services, capital and people has given us both better companies and more thriving countries, and has provided consumers with higher quality products at better prices. The single market also makes it easier to travel, study, work, live and retire in other member states…. The single market also contributes to the Union’s unique peace project as it has generated increased trade, closer contacts and greater mobility within the Union.”

Trade transposed a region that fought two world wars in the short span of two decades, and has managed to remain relatively peaceful and devoid of conflict for over seven decades. It is granted that challenges remain deeply entrenched, and much doubt is raised over collective action, but it is also true that the European model of integration remains unique and in a league of its own, well ahead of the rest. Davies’ claim remains accurate as the progress “is far more easily described than explained.”