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Friday, October 27, 2017

THE OCCULT OF OCTOBER: CATALONIA TODAY, SCOTLAND TOMORROW?



October is considered the best month to visit Catalonia owing to the Barcelona Jazz Festival, the human castle building competition in Tarragona, the sparkling wine festival in Sant Sadurni d’Anoia and the festivities in Girona surrounding the Fires de Sant Narcis. Yet October 2017 draws to a close on a highly contentious note with a referendum, a declaration of independence and attempts to secede being met with a military response, the invoking of constitutional provisions for direct rule and strong attempts to stop the disintegration of a country.

Spain’s political turmoil in recent months has left the world flummoxed as states, especially in European Union, cautiously observe developments within a country which once conquered large swathes of territory and enforced the use of a language that is the second most spoken in the world today. Two centuries ago, at the Battle of Maipú, Spanish control of the southern region of South America ended. While the Argentine native, Jose de San Martin crossed into Chile in 1817 and joined forces with Bernardo O’Higgins to drive the Spanish out the following year, it would be a matter of years before the Spanish were completely routed from the mainland and retained only Cuba and Puerto Rico until 1898 when they became protectorates of the United States of America following the Spanish – American War. Two hundred years later in 2017 Spain grapples with a problem within her own mainland, which has festered for centuries.

The Catalan secession bid is not new. Identified as a vital region by the Romans, leaders and their empires at varied times, have recognised autonomous rule whilst thwarting attempts of secession. Catalans even placed themselves under French rule during the reign of Louis XIII, before facing complete subjugation in the ensuing decades. The harshest times were under General Franco who did not recognize autonomy. The President of Catalania from 1934, Lluís Companys became the first democratically elected European leader to be executed when he was killed by a firing squad on October 15th 1940, following his capture by the Gestapo and being handed over to Franco’s forces. It is against such a backdrop that the Catalan bid to secede draws international significance as the resistance movement has floundered and flourished over the centuries.

The troubling factor remains the impact on the region, given the sensitivity of the issue. Secession is never a comfortable subject given the ramifications experienced and precedents established. With memories of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, the subsequent secession of Kosovo, the division of Sudan and the independence of East Timor among others, Catalonia’s people themselves stand divided despite the overwhelming Parliamentary vote of independence.

The October 01st 2017 referendum called by Catalan President Carles Puigdemont rang alarm bells in Spain. Immediate concern arises over the validity of the vote, at which 90% of the 43% of eligible voters supported independence. This translates into 38.7% of the total eligible voters supporting secession.

What then of the remaining 61.3% and their stance on the issue of independence?

Nationalism, Europe and secession movements

The most pressing problem in Europe at the moment was supposed to be Brexit and the efforts being made to reach a ‘deal’ which is acceptable to all. Whilst the regional body was trying to extricate itself from the logjam of Brexit, Catalonia poses fresh concern as sovereignty and regionalism are challenged once again.

Nationalistic sentiment heightened in 2017. Dutch elections saw Geert Wilders out-performing expectation. France’s Marine Le Pen came to the very doorstep of the Elysees, before losing in the final round of the Presidential election. Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the third largest party, winning seats in the Bundestag for the first time. Although moderates were able to hold sway in 2017, the ensuing period till the next round of elections in 2022 remains crucial. Policy formulation and implementation over the next half a decade will decide the demise or rise of nationalism in Europe.

The present remains most concerning. Leaders across Europe have been quick to express explicit support for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Knowing the consequences of secession, they don’t want the Catalan issue spreading its tentacles or influencing separatist movements in their respective territories. France’s Macron and his government have been firm in their opposition. Nationalist sentiments in Corsica and Brittany saw Macron not winning a single seat in the former territory at the parliamentary election earlier this year, but three seats were filled by a secessionist alliance. Nationalists in Brittany waved the Catalan flag warning that it is they who would decide on their own future.

Contending with separatism in Italy, the country’s foreign minister Angelino Alfano condemned the independence declaration, over fears of separatism movements in the Lombardy and Veneto regions gathering momentum along with those in Sicily and South Tyrol. Catalonia’s impact spreads further caution in Croatia over Istria Country which has been demanding regional autonomy; in the Czech Republic owing to Moravia which has been seeking self-determination since 2005, and Czech Silesia; in Poland given the strong advocacy for autonomy in Upper Silesia; in Romania with ethnic Hungarians demanding secession in Székely Land; in Denmark, although to a lesser degree, over Bornholm which has sought independence since the 1990s and Faroe Islands’ similar plea since 1948; in Belgium with disagreement over Flanders and Wallonia, in Germany given Bavarian nationalism; and even in the Basque region of Spain.

Despite Catalonia constituting one of the wealthiest regions of Spain, and contributing a sizable economic value to the EU, the President of European Commission cautioned that he does not want ‘a situation where tomorrow, the European Union is made up of 95 different states.’ Jean-Claude Juncker’s fears are well founded as the domino effect of Catalonia could be experienced across the European region.

Given the plethora of struggles, it is the United Kingdom that faces the gravest threat. Scotland’s External Affairs Secretary Fiona Hyslop noted that the people of Catalonia ‘must have the ability to determine their own future’, but stopped short of openly recognizing the budding state. With Northern Ireland and Wales also harbouring secessionist movements, it is the enthusiasm of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to discuss a further referendum on Scottish independence in autumn next year that appears the immediate consequence.

The occult of October could very well return in a year’s time as the focus moves from Spain to the United Kingdom in October 2018.

-   -   AWARELOGUE EDITORIAL