Security, in
its many forms and manifestations, grip persons, confound societies, baffle
nations and complicate international relations. The realization of the risks
involved in security, loom in the absence of the latter. A predominant
phenomenon in Asia is the continuous attempt to dissipate the fear psychosis
that lapses in security could bring to bear on life and limb. People look to
their governments for safety. Governments look to partners on the international
stage to reduce the risk of danger and infringement of the right to a safe and
secure existence. This interdependence is of paramount importance as states
rely on each other for counsel and assistance in thwarting the corollaries of
security breaches. Since ancient times, security and its preservation, has
remained at the top of agendas, dominated discussions, precipitated tension and
even resulted in wars. Whilst threats from non-state entities are of dominant
concern, many states contend with and exist in fear of other states and their
apparatus, whether military or otherwise.
The situation is
not, however, as grim as it might be predisposed to be, especially in the Asian
context. Or rather it may not necessarily be perceived as negatively as it
might appear. Asia as a whole possesses the potential to co-exist albeit
certain misgivings and tensions, which are present in all regional groupings. East
Asia in particular has made vast strides in the march towards regionalism and kept
at bay, to a large extent, the threats posed by suspicion, reservations and
disputes. This success
is believed to originate in the ‘…very fact that ASEAN has so far prevented its
members from going to war with one another, given that ASEAN was considered as
the Balkans of the East in the 1960s.’[1]
The economic
dimension of security is a key component in its study. Globalization and
economic security, whilst possessing the possibility of partnering progress, also
retain the ability to cause much destruction. Towards this end Miles Kahler claimed
that globalization has engineered ‘two anxieties that have
factored into the definition of economic security. First, the opening of borders has generated unease
over the growth of illicit cross-border exchange in drugs and contraband,
criminal and terrorist networks, illegal migration, and cross-border movement
of pathogens such as the SARS virus. Second, economic liberalization and globalization
have the potential to engender a new vulnerability to international markets through
the economic and political volatility that they produce.’[2]
It is in this
context of security being at the forefront of continued caution that this paper
strives to examine Asian economic security and its ramifications, while
examining China’s role and the possibility of partnering policy, progress and
prosperity. Has a cohesive policy of planning been considered? Is this an immense
source of strength or an insurmountable threat? Is economic security at the
heart of discourse among states in the region, thus making it the common
denominator?
Economic security:
problems and prospects
Understanding
the scope of security has been widely enmeshed in military and political
aspects. The need for guaranteeing and preserving security has been left to
militaries with political will backing the process. The deep-rooted, entrenched
nature of globalization and the Asian financial crisis could be regarded as two
of the turning points in making states realize the vast potential their
economies possessed, the harmful characteristics of them and the spillover
effect that such a crisis could have on a region and beyond. The Asian financial crisis, the
region’s baptism by fire, renewed hope in resilience. It is this resilience
that is today at the crux of trade and commerce as states amalgamate, in the
context of ASEAN, and persevere to uncover potential. This realm,
which hadn’t been focused on sufficiently in the past, thereby rose in
significance. The globalized nature of economies contributed to the crisis as
countries ventured into new areas and battled fresh challenges to overcome that
which they were forced to face.
As the planet’s largest and most populace continent covering
an expanse of 44, 579, 000 km2, Asia is home to roughly 60% of the
world’s population. The region possesses the second largest nominal GDP of all
continents, but the largest when measured in purchasing power parity. Whilst
China has grown by leaps and bounds, maintaining annual growth in the 1990s and
early 2000s at more than 8%, today the economy stands as a giant on the Asian
domain. Overall resilience has remained a cornerstone of growth and
development, whilst all-out war has been avoided.
Asia has faced and endured untold
levels of poverty which have been and are being addressed in new and innovative
ways; massive population growth and its resulting implications that have
burdened, yet increased manpower and potential; natural disasters that have
taken a significant toll on person and property, but increased levels of
resilience and improved facilities thereafter; and financial crises that have
crippled economies in the short term, yet strengthened them subsequently.
Economies and their leadership have proven time and again
that although might and muscle can overpower at times, right and resilience
play a key role in determining the course the region and her members would
traverse. While the heavyweights have played ball, their smaller counterparts
have certainly not been sitting it out on the benches. The examples, indicators
and aspects of this diverse region, continue to amaze the most cynical of
critics. Despite irritants erupting
within, mainly between neighbours, across borders and straits, and betwixt
adversaries of doctrine and policy, these countries have been able to overcome
with resolve and determination, their differences, to a large extent. Boding
well, this assimilation, understanding and constructive advancement has
resulted in a constructive, well-matured region.
China: a successful neighbour
Sixty
years ago Chou Enlai strode the world stage. His personality and policy were articulated
at the 1955 Bandung Conference at which he laid out the role he envisioned for
his country and his style of governance. Dispelling misgivings and assuaging
prejudice, the Chinese Premier led China into the global arena with his own
savoir-flair style of diplomacy.[3]
The
newly formed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is set to rival
the Bretton Woods institutions, has marked the presence of 57 countries so far.
The desire for many countries outside the region to join the AIIB signals not
just the potential of the bank but the attention it has received. Foreboding
well for the Asian region, in which it is headquartered, the US$ 50 billion
dollar bank is geared towards achieving Asia’s growing investment needs and intends
revolutionizing the infrastructure industry, aiding development and taking the
Chinese success story to the region and beyond.[4]
Having
reached out and strengthened relations in Asia and in Africa over the last
several decades, China’s venture into Latin America has proved noteworthy.
Premier Li Kequiang’s visits to Brazil, Chile, Columbia and Peru in May 2015
sought to further strengthen trade and commerce links with direct investment in
Latin America set to reach US$250 billion over the next decade. Having eclipsed
the United States as the top destination for South American exports, China is
currently Latin America’s biggest annual creditor.[5] The
visit is but one, into a region that has come to rely heavily on China and is
symptomatic of the influence that this once distant and relatively inward
looking country has come to signify.
Chou Enlai succeeded in dispelling qualms and apprehensions
that existed sixty years ago and thrust China into the global arena. Xi Jinping
has marked the milestone with far reaching vision and cemented the position of
China as a key leader, in world affairs. His initiatives in resurrecting the
ancient Silk Road and thereby creating an ‘economic belt’ has widely enhanced
the influence of China not only across the Asian region but beyond into Africa,
the Middle East and Europe as investments are targeted in the areas of road,
rail, port and pipelines across 65 countries. Upon
assuming chairmanship of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building
Measures in Asia (CICA), President Xi stressed that ‘with our interests and
security so closely intertwined, we will swim or sink together and we are
increasingly becoming a community of common destiny.’[6] The close affinity nurtured continuously through
investment and commerce has benefited countries throughout the region.
A view of the statistics alone portend that in
the next couple of years, China will see her imports reaching US$ 10 trillion,
outbound investment is expected to reach US$ 500 billion and the number of
outbound tourists is likely to exceed 400 million. As President Xi highlighted
‘the more China grows itself, the more development opportunities it will create
for the rest of Asia and the world.’[7]
Auguring well for South-South cooperation, the fast
changing tide sees China gradually assume a higher if not the highest role in
the international hierarchy. As a new champion of smart power, the way Nye cast
it, China has gone beyond the hard and soft versions. Possessing military
prowess, economic and financial dexterity and venturing into a multitude of
sectors and territories, China’s achievement needs to be understood in the
Asian context, wherein the region as a whole may lay claim to the success of an
Asian neighbour.
Fear - learning from the past, understanding more
from the present
Economic
security undoubtedly brings to fruition possible or comparable economic
insecurity. The fear factors are enmeshed in the notion that over–reliance and
interdependence could generate a mass downfall. Socio-economic problems form
the foundation of such fears, fueled most often by stupendous growth. Poverty,
the lack of economic growth, the persistent debt crisis, poor terms of trade
and disadvantageous global competitiveness are but some of the ingredients
stirring the cauldron of economic security as countries wage what is often
perceived as an unwinnable war.
Furthermore, Jorge
Nef rightly pointed out that ‘since 1961, the non-Western countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle
East, and the Americas have gone through at least three United Nations
sponsored "development decades." However, little development, let
alone catching up, has taken place.’[8] The question therefore arises as to why it
wasn’t a success and why would this attempt be any different? It is in the
question itself that the solution is found. The stronger the system, sturdier the
ties and the firmer the network, the less likely countries are to fall prey to
crises. In the past decades, the imposition of a solution through a development
agenda for a specified period remained just that – a solution for a specified
period. In contrast the scenario today reveals a continuous collaboration through
which countries have the option of partnering with each other in the common
pursuit of sustainable development. It becomes tangible and the effects of
development spill out into society, rather than remaining contained within
economic statistics. It is noteworthy that Chinese trade within Asia has
increased from US$ 800 billion to US$ 3 trillion and trade with other regions
has grown from US$ 1.5 trillion to US$ 4.8 trillion. China has become the
largest trading partner, biggest export market and a major source of
investment, and countries, especially those in the Asian region stand to gain -
and gain immensely.
It is not a
situation in which the poor are made richer by making the rich poorer, as
warned against by Churchill. Instead the influx of investment, enhanced
connectivity, the development of industry and infrastructure, guaranteed
markets all indicate and lead towards sustainable economic growth. Capturing
such growth has failed thus far owing to it not reaching the grassroots and
instead bopping on the surface of economies. The doom and gloom proclamations
of such ventures from the past remain there, in the past. What is projected for
the future is however economic growth that is intended to reach the periphery
while strengthening the centre.
Concerns and
the call for caution will exist, yet countries, as articulated by Noor, with
regard to the foreign relations of Malaysia, would be wise to advocate pragmatism.
This would be in the interest of all concerned. Claiming that ‘rather than calibrated,
cunning acumen, the foreign policy astuteness the country has demonstrated in
the past has rather been the result of functional pragmatism sprinkled with a
powdering of idealism’[9]
Noor reminds us of the beauty of simplicity, of understanding things for what
they are, rather than what we perceive them to be.
This
‘powdering of idealism’ wouldn’t harm anyone. It highlights our realization
that countries in Europe, which although highly competitive, power driven and
successful and said to be the very epitome of realism, have today joined
together in the European Union, achieving a highly idealistic goal in their
reliance on institutions and each other. Such co-existence, interdependence and
strong links have avoided the outbreak of war, generated sustainable
development and secured widespread prosperity for the region, although with a
few exceptions. The very ethos of Europe today is its reliance, voluntarily or
not, on idealism. ASEAN is well on the way to emulating such an ethos, although
the path to be progressed would need to be indigenous, encapsulating the
‘Asian-ness’ of the region and her policies, politics and people.
Partnering policy, progress and prosperity
Daron Acemoglu
and James A. Robinson hide no inhibitions in discounting the aims and
aspirations of countries, chief among which is China. Arguing that ‘attempting
to engineer prosperity without confronting the root cause of the problems –
extractive institutions and the politics that keeps them in place – is unlikely
to bear fruit’,[10]
they have, however, accepted that irrespective of the institutions and politics
in place, prosperity can be harnessed, it can be transplanted and it can
succeed. This flies in the face of ‘development decades’ that failed to achieve
that which they were intended to.
Policy becomes highly relevant in this
process of partnering. President Xi stressed that ‘as
members of the same global village, we should foster a sense of community of
common destiny, follow the trend of the times, keep to the right direction,
stick together in time of difficulty and ensure that development in Asia and
the rest of the world reaches new highs.’[11]Setting and reaching common economic targets, whilst seen
in formal regional bodies, would do well to be matched in relation to ties with
China.
Addressing the Boao Forum
in 2013, President Xi referred to the Chinese adage that a wise man changes as
time and events change. He noted that countries ‘should abandon the outdated
mindset, break away from the old confines that fetter development and unleash
all the potential for development.’[12]This he claimed could be achieved through a policy of peace,
cooperation and openness. Peace, he noted, provided security as a safeguard for
boosting common development whereby the international community advocated the
vision of comprehensive security, common security and cooperative security turning
‘the global village into a big stage for common development, rather than an
arena where gladiators fight each other.’[13]
Through cooperation, he called for an effective
vehicle was created for enhancing common development through the enhancement of
South-South cooperation and North-South dialogue, promotion of balanced
development of the developing and developed countries and a consolidation of the
foundation for sustaining stable growth of the global economy. Whilst openness,
he claimed ensured inclusivity, creating a broad space for enhancing common
development through which countries respect the right of others to
independently choose their social system and development path, remove distrust
and misgivings and turn the diversity of the world and difference among
countries into dynamism and driving force for development.
This multi-pronged
strategy has been tried and tested. Viewed as a return to the basics, the
adoption and implementation of such a policy of partnering across the region,
laying aside skepticism and suspicion in the name of and for the promotion of
economic security, would, it is argued provide for a win-win situation.
The path ahead
for Asia, in perceived challenging times, would do well to be traversed upon
the lines of regionalism. Interdependence and economic cooperation cannot be
underestimated in the pursuit of development and prosperity and they need to be
entrenched into systems of governance. Joint formulation of policy for the
achievement of progress would augur well for Asia. Such co-dependence isn’t and
mustn’t be viewed as external interference or meddling and instead needs to be
understood from economic terms. The resulting prospects would enhance domestic
economies, boost national economies and strengthen international trade. The
burgeoning of development, greater circulation of finance, provision of
opportunities, improvement of economic statistics and the experience of actual
improvement in the lives of Asians, needs to be tethered to China and her rapid
progress.
The need
arises for examination of whether a cohesive policy of planning has been
considered, if China is an immense source of strength or an insurmountable
threat, and whether economic security remains at the heart of the discourse in
the region. It is evident that China has forwarded a comprehensive and clear
strategy for partnering. Attaching no strings, but instead underpinning the
basic common factors of peace, cooperation and openness, China has proved to be
an immense source of strength to Asia. In addition, economic security, which is
undoubtedly at the heart of China’s policy, has been identified as a key
concern in the context of security, a recognition that bodes well for the
entire Asian region.
President Xi has
had no qualms in stating that ‘China is an important member of the Asian family
and the global family. China cannot develop itself in isolation from the rest
of Asia and the world. On their part, the rest of Asia and the world cannot
enjoy prosperity and stability without China.’[14] China has
accepted her role. The sooner she is viewed as a friend
and is joined in the pursuit of development, the sooner Asia and in fact many
other regions of the world, will gain economic strength and stability, and ensure
much needed economic security.
[1]Mely
Caballero-Anthony, ‘The Regionalization of Peace in Asia’, ed. Michael Pugh and Waheguru
Pal Singh Sidhu, The United Nations and
Regional Security, Lynne Rienner, Colorado, 2003, p197.
[2]Kahler, Miles - Economic Security in an era of
Globalization: Definition and Provision, Luncheon Address – Institute of
Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore, 2003
[3]Paul E. Sigmund, The Ideologies of Developing
Countries, Praeger, London, 1963, pp54-55
[4] Joseph Stiglitz
– ‘In defence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’ - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/14/in-defence-of-the-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank\
[9]Noor,
Elina - Friends with Benefits: Why Malaysia can and will maintain good ties
with both the United States and China - https://www.cigionline.org/blogs/asia-pacific-security/friends-benefits-why-malaysia-can-and-will-maintain-good-ties-both-unite
[10]Acemoglu,
Daron and Robinson, James A., Why Nations Fail, 2012, Crown Business New York,
p 450
