Emmanuel Macron’s imminent French
Presidential victory has resulted in a sigh of relief across Europe, and in
fact globally, as the tide of nationalism is abating, at least for the
foreseeable future. As the Awarelogue Editorial in March 2017 discussed Geert Wilders
defeat in the Netherlands and questioned the ‘Patriotic Spring’ meeting its
Waterloo, (https://awarelogue.blogspot.com/2017/03/wilders-patriotic-spring-meets-its.html)
it is apparent that despite a significant rise in nationalism, the tide is not
strong enough to overwhelm the political structure of Europe. For the moment. Yet
in France, the actual strength of Macron and more importantly, En Marche, has not been put to the real
test.
On the eve of the first round of
voting, former US President Barack Obama tweeted ‘you never know, it might be
that last day of campaigning that makes all the difference.’ As ominous as it
may sound, his warning came just hours before a shooting on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées
which, it was feared would scuttle floating votes and benefitting Le Pen. Yet
the attack didn’t dissuade the French citizenry who gave former Economy
Minister, Macron a decisive lead. Immigration and Europe have dominated matters
on either side of the Channel, but the French have already learnt from the ‘mistakes’
of others. With a strong ally across the Atlantic reeling from divisive decisions
and sporadic policies, and a neighbour undergoing the rigours of leaving the
European Union, the French and Europe as a whole have understood the dangers of
opting for brashness and instead sought to ensure stability.
Akin to Trump, Macron has managed
to sideline veterans. Melenchon entered politics the year before Macron was
born, Francois Fillon, served as Prime Minister under Sarkozy, and Marine Le
Pen, the forthright leader of the far right, all presented stronger candidatures,
yet the newcomer proved once more that the populace is willing to give change a
chance. Macron served as Economy Minister under Hollande yet managed to shed all
shadows of a period described as economically disastrous. The honeymoon is yet
to begin but the questions and doubts will invariably arise. In 2012 the French
wanted change. Electing Francois Hollande, the first leftwing leader in two
decades, they expected wide ranging policy changes, but five years later he is
set to leave the Élysées Palace with some of the lowest ratings of a French President.
Sarkozy before him faced a similar fate.
2017 has seen the French opting
for change again, but not willing to go to an extreme with Le Pen, instead trusting
Macron to deliver on key promises and ensure a revival of the country and her
economy. As more candidates and influential figures express their support for
Macron, the unofficial coalition being built is more against Le Pen, than for
Macron. Despite her stepping down from the leadership of the National Front seeking
to be portrayed as a leader of the French, and not of a party, Le Pen, who has
worked wonders for the far-right would see history repeat itself. In 2002, her
father Jean-Marie Le Pen entered the second round of voting against President
Jacques Chirac, only to have a grand coalition of opposition that ensured Chirac
won a second term in the Élysées.
With legislative elections due in
June 2017, and the need for his newly formed party to field candidates capable
of winning, will Macron be able to deliver or will he suffer the same fate as
his predecessors and be booted out in 2022? Minus a well-oiled mechanism across
the country, he could well be forced to engage in a cohabitation arrangement,
which would invariably derail his own plans and presidency. France is no
stranger to such arrangements having seen President Francois Mitterrand
cohabiting with Jacques Chirac as Prime Minister from 1986 to 1988 and
thereafter with Édouard Balladur from 1993 to 1995; Chirac himself had to work
with Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.
Although a sigh of relief may
have been exclaimed across Europe, En
Marche needs to move forward, well and beyond May 2017, if that which was
pledged is to be delivered and expectations lived up to. More than defeating the
rise of nationalism or curtailing the far-right, the real test is for Macron to
prove his potential and for En Marche
to ride the victory wave in establishing a wide ranging support base, which although
hopeful, appears illusive within such a short period. This is the real test.
- Awarelogue Editorial
