A calculated, concerted move by Theresa May will see another European nation facing a critical election in 2017. The British Prime Minister’s disgruntled stance with Westminster, which she accused of not rallying behind her in the move to leave the European Union, stems from growing dissent across the political milieu, including within the Conservatives. While the June 08th general election is projected to strengthen Britain’s exit strategy, it is a move to strengthen her own party and its position, yet the challenges will only mount in the weeks ahead as Brexit is put to a second vote.
With the Tories having won the general election of 2015, May inherited a party which had governed for one fifth of its term, and could continue till 2020 with the current majority in Parliament. Yet latest popularity polls have indicated the Conservatives enjoy 44% as opposed to 23% for Labour. Thirty years ago, the Thatcher-led Conservatives were at 41% of the popular vote whilst Labour under Neil Kinnock stood at 30%. Prime Minister Thatcher had a year left in her second term when she chose to test the waters and seek a third term. While the ‘winter of discontent’ propelled her first victory in 1979, her second term was boosted by Falklands. By 1987, Margaret Thatcher had a booming economy and her gamble ended in a decisive victory which she said was because the Conservatives ‘knew what we stood for, we said what we stood for. And we stuck by what we stood for.’
Twenty years later, Theresa May faces myriad battles, owing mostly to Brexit. Her claim that ‘Brexit means Brexit and we are going to make a success of it’ as she occupied Downing Street, has seen her invoking Article 50 in the last few weeks, and her pushing for a unique deal for Britain as she leaves the regional grouping. Wanting a special trade deal guaranteeing access to the single market, smooth trade across borders and the ability to control immigration, May might be asking for too much, too soon. As European nations face one election after another, the actual discussions are not likely to make much progress until at least the German’s have had their say in their federal elections in September 2017, losing a quarter of the two-year negotiating time frame.
In the face of opposition from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the House of Lords, May believes strengthening the position of the party and herself would ensure enhanced prospects for the Tories, given their current ratings, and more leveraging power at the European negotiating table. Yet the Prime Minister has chosen to ignore a vital statistic - the people. In June 2016, 71.8% of eligible British voters exercised their franchise giving the Brexit camp 53.4% of the vote. In terms of numbers it is credible, yet the growing concern which started on the morning after the referendum has seen deep divisions getting deeper as people begin to understand the ramifications of pulling out of the EU. With threats to sovereignty emanating chiefly from Scotland and Northern Ireland, an upsetting of regionalism in the best known model, and countless trade concerns and the potentially debilitating loss of markets, questions continue to rise over the possibility of securing the ‘best deal for Britain.’ Such an eventuality would only lead to other European nations wanting similar ‘deals,’ worrying European leaders further.
Although May and the Tories command a lead in the polls, the potential for the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party remain boundless. Having chosen to enter a cohabitation agreement with the Conservatives in 2010, when they won 57 seats, the Lib Dems learnt a bitter lesson in the ensuing term, as David Cameron cashed in on all gains of the coalition, and Nick Clegg was left to pick up the pieces, with a massive electoral defeat resulting in a mere 8 seats being secured. Today Tim Farron has been afforded an opportunity few would miss. Having consistently opposed Brexit, the Lib Dem leader has hailed the call for the general election as a ‘chance to change the direction’ of Britain. Coupled with the dissatisfied Nicola Sturgeon, elements of the Conservatives, and those in Labour, Farron could become king-maker or even king in June 2017.
In 1997, Tony Blair and Labour swept to power, yet twenty years on, the party he revitalized remains in disarray. Blair has spoken openly against Brexit, and has gone further to criticize, noting that ‘the debilitation of the Labour party is the facilitator of Brexit.’ Whilst claiming that people had a right to change their mind, the former Prime Minister is expected to be the key campaigner against Prime Minister May, with Jeremy Corbyn relegated to second place or possibly no place at all. Divisions within the party have heightened over Scotland too, as the floating of the idea of a second Scottish referendum has seen Corbyn ‘absolutely fine’ with it but Scottish Labour party leader Kezia Dugdale rejecting the call.
Will Nigel Farage return to lead the campaigning? Will Ruth Davidson, the Tory Scottish leader be able to improve her party’s position in Scotland or will Nicola Sturgeon boost the SNP’s seats in Westminster? Will Tony Blair remerge despite his Iraqi controversy? Will Theresa May be Prime Minister in two months time? Will an Alliance be formed with likeminded persons leading the halting of Brexit? The next seven weeks and events therein, bear the potential of altering the course of the British, and what appears to be a single-issue election will be overshadowed by Scotland.
Irrespective of the outcome of the June 08th election, the Bremain campaigners claim the first victory. Theresa May has effectively acceded to a second referendum on Britain’s position on its membership in the European Union, and has put her party at stake. This could be the worst gamble of the Conservatives, or the last chance for the British.
- Awarelogue Editorial
